News Release

Sunburned & winded: Only 30% of U.S. solar and 57% wind projects expected to survive under one, Big, Beautiful Bill Act

California and Arizona shine in solar strength, Montana and Oklahoma lead in protecting wind

byEnverus
July 15, 2025

CALGARY, Alberta (July 15, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages Generative AI across its solutions, has released a new report accessing the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now that it has been signed into law. In the report, EIR experts evaluate where resilient renewable capacity is most concentrated in the U.S. queue and which solar and onshore wind developers are the most exposed.

“We define resilient projects as those with before-tax levelized cost of energy (LCOEs) that are lower than prevailing power and renewable energy credit (REC) prices. These competitive LCOEs can be achieved without the support of tax credits,” said EIR Analyst Corianna Mah.

“In our analysis, we estimate the top three largest renewable portfolios each have less than 30% of resilient queued capacity.”

“We expect development activity to shift toward states with renewable portfolio standard targets like Arizona, Ohio and others, where stronger REC prices and policy support can still underpin project economics and long-term offtake power purchase agreements (PPAs),” Mah said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • An estimated 30% of solar and 57% of onshore wind capacity are resilient to removing the investment and production tax credits. These projects can achieve a before-tax LCOE below their respective markets’ forward power and REC prices without relying on tax credits.
  • Among the five states with the largest queued solar capacity, Texas, Illinois and Indiana have the lowest shares of resilient projects — 6%, 40% and 41%. Nearly all queued solar projects in California and Arizona are resilient.
  • Of the leading states by queued onshore wind capacity, Iowa, Illinois and Texas have low shares of resilient projects between 21% and 61%. All evaluated wind projects in Montana and most in Oklahoma meet our resilience threshold.

EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus FOUNDATIONS® | Power & Renewables.

You must be an Enverus Intelligence® subscriber to access this report.

About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.

Picture of Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

EIR forecasts modest impact on U.S. natural gas demand from data center expansion
News Release
ByEnverus
December 3, 2025

Enverus Intelligence® Research forecasts more conservative U.S. data center load growth, citing stricter utility requirements and policy changes that have reduced speculative projects and reshaped the outlook for natural gas demand.

Enverus unveils 2025 winter power outlook, spotlights renewables and market shifts
News Release
ByEnverus
December 2, 2025

Enverus releases its 2025 Winter Power Market Outlook, highlighting growth in solar and battery storage, key policy shifts, and actionable forecasts for North American power markets.

Distributed generation The turbines are coming
News Release
ByEnverus
November 26, 2025

Enverus Intelligence® Research reveals how distributed generation and behind-the-meter power are accelerating to meet hyperscale data center demand amid grid delays and infrastructure bottlenecks.

Utilities reshape rate structures amid data center boom
News Release
ByEnverus
November 25, 2025

Enverus Intelligence® Research reveals how U.S. utilities are reshaping rate structures and interconnection requirements to manage the surge in data center demand, with new tariffs driving down speculative proposals and enabling significant cost savings for flexible operators.

ERCOT battery profits drop as market saturation reshapes Texas storage
News Release
ByEnverus
November 19, 2025

Enverus Intelligence® Research analyzes how battery saturation and shifting operator strategies are driving a sharp decline in ERCOT battery storage profits, revealing key trends and future market challenges for Texas’s energy sector.

Thanks to solar and nuclear, U.S. power generation to grow 57% by 2050
News Release
ByEnverus
November 18, 2025

A new Enverus Intelligence® Research report forecasts 57% growth in U.S. power grid capacity by 2050, highlighting the transition to solar energy, nuclear power, and renewable energy as coal retires. Discover key trends, regional impacts, and technology shifts shaping the...

Baytex Energy Becomes Pure-Play Canadian Producer with $2.3B Eagle Ford Exit
Analyst Takes News Release
ByDrew Depoe
November 12, 2025

Following Baytex Energy’s announcement to exit the Eagle Ford through a $2.3 billion (C$3.25 billion) asset sale, Drew Depoe, Senior Analyst at Enverus Intelligence® Research, offered perspective on the strategic implications of the deal.

EIR adjusts Brent forecast due to expected stock surge
News Release
ByEnverus
November 12, 2025

Enverus Intelligence® Research revises its Brent and Henry Hub forecasts downward for 2026, citing inventory surpluses and muted demand. LNG prices remain resilient despite oversupply concerns.

Global gas, LNG, Haynesville and Permian outlooks reveal key trends in production, pricing and infrastructure expansion
News Release
ByEnverus
November 5, 2025

Explore new Enverus Intelligence® Research reports on global gas demand, LNG market resilience, Haynesville drilling efficiency, and Permian pipeline expansions.

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert