Calgary, Alberta (May 17, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a part of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released a report analyzing renewable natural gas (RNG) including an overview of the technology, quantifying the macro impact, comparing project economics to fossil gas and estimating potential for landfill RNG across the U.S.
“Renewable natural gas is a prime example of how carbon accounting can impact investment decisions. The produced natural gas is functionally equivalent to fossil fuel gas, but its attractive carbon profile leads to realized prices three to 11 times higher than the already decade-high $8.50/MMBtu Henry Hub spot price,” said John Gutentag, report author and associate at Enverus Intelligence Research.
“We expect low-carbon funds to chase the strong economics and carbon profiles of RNG projects, but we don’t think there is enough scale in the U.S. to make more than about a 1-2% impact on the domestic natural gas market.”
- Key takeaways from the report: RNG projects produce low- or negative-carbon natural gas from plant and waste material, enabling them to gain access to lucrative carbon credits that can push realized prices to anywhere from $30/MMBtu to more than $100. These eye-catching numbers greatly eclipse the recent decade-high Henry Hub spot price of about $8.50/MMBtu.
- Today’s 185 MMcf/d RNG supply market is tiny but growing quickly, evidenced by a four-year compounded annual growth rate of 29%. We expect the demand for RNG to grow at least 4.6x by 2030 to 855 MMcf/d based on existing procurement targets. For context, the U.S. domestic market currently consumes about 83 Bcf/d.
- We believe landfills represent the highest volumetric RNG potential and estimate about 1,030 MMcf/d of total possible capacity in the U.S., with a potential of 870 MMcf/d from landfills with either planned projects or are within five miles of existing gas infrastructure.
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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.