News Release

Exposing the Hidden Bear Trap: Recession Expected To Bite Global Oil Demand

byEnverus

China, India and non-OECD Asia will drive oil demand growth in 2023, with other regions offering negative or marginal growth

Calgary, Alberta (November 7, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report that looks at near-term global oil demand, correlations between gross domestic product (GDP) and oil demand, and impacts of a possible recession on oil demand. EIR’s report further explains its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2023, and why it remains sharply lower than the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC’s estimates.

“Our analysis shows that China, India and non-OECD Asia are the largest components of oil demand growth in 2023, with other regions offering negative or marginal growth at best,” said Bill Farren-Price, report author and a director at EIR.

“While we don’t anticipate a repeat of the 2008 recession, we assess the consensus estimate for 2023 oil demand growth (1.7-2.0 MMbbl/d growth over this year) as optimistic, especially compared to historical analogues. We instead forecast oil demand growth of 1.0 MMbbl/d Y/Y for 2023,” Farren-Price said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • EIR forecasts global oil demand in 2023 will grow 1 MMbbl/d, lower than the major agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).
  • While the IMF GDP forecasts underpin our oil demand model, EIR observes that in 2008-09, the IMF was late in forecasting recession; light in its expectations for the pace of recovery; and that medium-term growth was lower than the Fund’s forecasts in the recovery phase.
  •  Around 50% of global oil demand serves the transport sector, where energy transition is accelerating. 

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment and sourcing, and our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

Enverus Press Release - From insights to injections: CCS Class VI permit applications surged 500%
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report analyzing data from its updated Class VI permit tracker, which includes new entries such as CO2 source location, facility details, approval...

Enverus Press Release - Enverus wins Thought Industries Best Innovation Using Extensibility Award
News Release
ByEnverus

For the third year in a row, Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has been awarded a Top Workplaces distinction by both the Austin American-Statesman and Houston Chronicle.

Enverus Press Release - Summoning Haynesville
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report, which focuses on global drivers for oil and gas prices through 2030, the five-year oil and gas supply and...

Enverus Press Release - The Barnett bonanza is coming
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report examining various exploration and production (E&P) companies testing the Barnett Formation in the Midland Basin, including economic and productivity outcomes.

Enverus Press Release - Widespread electric vehicle adoption may be ‘just around the corner’
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report with an updated view on electric vehicle (EV) adoption across its coverage regions (U.S., OECD Europe, OECD Asia, India and China)....

Enverus Press Release - Enverus adds Energy Transition solutions around $3.5T/year sector
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company, is adding new product solutions to meet the needs of the developing, $3.5 trillion/year energy transition market.

Enverus Press Release - $14B in 3Q23 upstream M&A overshadowed by October’s $60B+ historic deals
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, is releasing its summary of 3Q23 upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

Enverus Press Release - $14B in 3Q23 upstream M&A overshadowed by October’s $60B+ historic deals
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, is releasing its summary of 3Q23 upstream merger and acquisition (M&A) activity.

Enverus Press Release - Triple-digit oil prices will impact global economy
News Release
ByEnverus

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released its latest FundamentalEdge report, which focuses on global drivers for oil and gas prices through 2030, the five-year oil and gas supply and demand...

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business

Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Register Today

Get Energy Transition Research updates straight to your inbox by filling out the form below.

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert