Calgary, Alberta (May 11, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released a trio of reports that update their long-term LNG demand growth, near-term impacts to global oil demand and electric vehicle adoption, as well as the impact of the United States’ strategic petroleum (SPR) draw down in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
These three distinct reports, each with unique takeaways, factor in the global energy restructuring taking place and increasingly tighter natural gas and oil supply and demand balances as the western world weighs the possibility of energy sanctions on Russia.
Statement & key takeaways from Long-Term North American LNG Demand Growth | Ukraine War Prompts Surge in Offtake Commitment:
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked a wave of LNG deals as buyers tried to lock up supply from North American projects. Enverus estimates buyers in March signed up for 19 million tons annually of LNG, nearly equaling the total of deals inked last year. The tightness in global markets changes the outlook significantly for the next tier of projects and less commercially advanced projects likely benefit the most from the current market environment.”
— Al Salazar, Senior Vice President, Enverus Intelligence Research
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and EU certification of low emissions LNG as energy transition option exacerbated the call on LNG with offtakers signing ~19 MMtpa of offtake deals for North American LNG after war and more than 80% secured in March, a record for offtake commitments.
- The onstream U.S export facilities are fully utilized and have limited ability to add capacity. The only incremental U.S. LNG export capacity this year comes from the remaining trains (~0.9 Bcf/d) at Calcasieu Pass or debottlenecking of existing facilities. NFE targets a 1Q23 in-service date for its 2.8 MMtpa Fast LNG project, ~1.2 Bcf/d of LNG feedgas demand is anticipated to be added relative to March volumes.
- Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3 and Woodfibre altogether will add ~32.6 MMtpa of LNG export capacity (~4.3 Bcf/d) by 2025. We now expect U.S. feedgas demand to increase to ~23.5 Bcf/d in 2027. Global tailwinds add ~2 Bcf/d to our March outlook.
Statement & key takeaways from Oil Demand Update | Ukraine, Inflation Headwinds:
“The last time we experienced 3.6% global GDP growth with $100 oil was in 2014, when global oil demand grew by 1.3 MMbbl/d Y/Y. Today, under similar conditions, we are forecasting 1.65 MMbbl/d Y/Y growth this year, which is bearish relative to projections from the IEA and EIA. U.S. oil demand remains steady with little indication that high prices are eroding consumption yet. It appears that drawing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve at a rate of ~0.55 MMbbl/d over the past few weeks has been effective at keeping prices in check.”
— Chetan Sharma, Senior Associate, Enverus Intelligence Research
- Enverus Intelligence Research cut sharply its oil demand growth forecast for 2022 to 1.65 MMbbl/d as higher oil prices damped consumption and the Ukraine war drives other commodity prices higher.
- The timing of peak oil demand is less clear. On the one hand, higher oil prices and security of supply concerns will advance the transition to renewables. But policymakers in the near term may also choose to extend the life of coal and other carbon-intensive hydrocarbons as part of a plan to address surging energy prices.
Statement & key takeaways from PetroLogic | The Biden Band-Aid:
“Had it not been for Joe Biden’s Band-Aid of withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Russian supply outages and rising demand would have kept balances tight and stocks drawing through the remainder of the year. Aside from the oil being released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, U.S. oil production growth will help ease tightness, even if delivering that growth is challenged by oil field constraints such as limited rig crews.”
— Bill Farren-Price, Director, Enverus Intelligence Research
- Enverus Intelligence Research expects Brent to remain comfortably above $100 in 2022.
- Last month, Enverus Intelligence Research halved its 2022 forecast for oil demand growth to 1.5 MMbbl/d from 3 MMbbl/d prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Given the recovery in U.S. air traffic this year and steady gasoline consumption, we nudged up our forecast to 1.65 MMbbl/d Y/Y.
- Baseline revisions to U.S. supply mean lower outright production despite the upgrade in growth this year to 1.2 MMbbl/d exit-to-exit in 2022 with downside risk given oilfield services constraints.
- The precise rate at which Russian oil is sanctioned remains key as does the pace of OPEC’s ramp in supply as it nears capacity limits.
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About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.