CALGARY, Alberta (Mar. 4, 2025) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, has released a report looking at how power plant retirements have shifted in the last three years. After confirming a trend of rising retirement extensions, this report evaluates and lists the timing of natural gas plant retirements likely to be delayed, based on plant efficiency and projected power demand growth.
“After decades of flat or declining growth, power demand in the U.S. is increasing at levels not seen in a lifetime,” said Scott Wilmot, analyst at EIR. “With renewable intermittency still a challenge, dispatchable natural gas remains essential for ensuring reliable power amid rising demand, even as sustainability goals remain in focus. Looking at the data in our platform, we are seeing a higher number of natural gas power plants — especially higher efficiency combined-cycle facilities — that are having their retirements pushed back due to this dynamic.”
“We expect natural gas plants with more efficient heat rates and higher expected demand growth are more likely to delay retirement. Looking at expected natural gas plant retirement delays across the U.S., almost 75% of the capacity expected to be extended is in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), led by Arizona Public Service with over 1.7 gigawatts of capacity. And that’s just one example — we also see a high amount of retirement delays in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and with the new administration potentially rolling back the EPA Rule 111 power plant emission restrictions, we could see higher levels of retirement extensions for both coal and natural gas power plants across the U.S,” Wilmot said.
Key takeaways from the report:
- More natural gas power plants — particularly more efficient combined-cycle facilities — are having their retirements delayed ensuring system reliability in response to rising power demand.
- This trend is prominent in the SPP and WECC, where we anticipate above-average growth in power demand led by data centers, baseload expansion and cryptocurrency mining.
- EIR predicts natural gas plants with lower heat rates (i.e., higher efficiency) in areas with higher expected demand growth are more likely to delay retirement. Across the Lower 48 states, WECC accounts for almost 75% of natural gas plant capacity expected to be extended, led by Arizona Public Service with more than 1.7 GW.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of Enverus products including Enverus Foundations® | Power & Renewables.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
