News Release

Canadian Oil Sands: A Look at Regulatory, Economics and Transportation

byEnverus

Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion key to near-term production but environmental pushback, GHG reductions could constrain expected growth

Calgary, Alberta (November 16, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS platform, has released a new report that forecasts Canadian oil sands production through 2030, including a projection for Saskatchewan, and looks at regulatory, economics and transportation issues that could pose hurdles to our estimates. The report arrives as EIR recently cut its forecast for U.S. production growth, a result of the headwinds created by oilfield services limitations, the risk of recession and reduced performance from wells drilled recently in the Permian Basin.

“Expansion in the oil sands will be supported by the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion, which is due to come online at the end of 2023,” said Carson Kearl, report author and an associate at EIR. “The increased takeaway supports our growth projection to the end of the decade, when we believe increasing social and political headwinds will begin to slow or stall the region’s pace of growth.”

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Canadian oil sands production is on pace to grow to 4.2 MMbbl/d by 2030, up from ~3.3 MMbbl/d today, driven by infrastructure buildouts that will increase takeaway capacity.
  • Federal regulations, expected to be enacted in early 2023, will seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry by 31% below 2005 levels in 2030 (or 42% below 2019 levels).
  • Other challenges, including pipeline planning, uncertain longer-term economics and growing public environmental pushback against new mining projects, may also constrain growth.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus’ expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS platform, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 98% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 35,000 suppliers. Our platform, with intelligent connections, drives more efficient production and distribution, capital allocation, renewable energy development, investment and sourcing, and our experienced industry experts support our customers through thought leadership, consulting and technology innovations. We provide intelligence across the energy ecosystem: renewables, oil and gas, financial institutions, and power and utilities, with more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters.

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

Picture of Enverus

Enverus

Energy’s most trusted SaaS platform — creating intelligent connections that uncover insights and opportunities to deliver extraordinary outcomes.

Related News

At the cap, below CONE Why PJM’s capacity market needs a reset
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research finds PJM’s current capacity market may not support financeable new gas generation at today’s capital costs. The report analyzes the capacity-price levels and bilateral contract structures needed to make new CCGT projects viable.

ERCOT Large Load Batch Zero Readiness
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research analyzes ERCOT’s Batch Zero large-load qualification, estimating that 55 projects (21.7 GW) are positioned to meet the July 15 requirements while 62 projects (37 GW) are likely deferred to Batch 1+. The report outlines key deadlines, financial-security...

What’s next for the Strait of Hormuz?
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research’s latest Strait of Hormuz outlook highlights a stocks-driven “higher for longer” setup, modeling OECD crude and product inventories falling from 2.82 Bbbl (YE25) to a 2.36 Bbbl trough in Q4 2026. The report also flags a potential...

Let’s make a deal Brent upgraded, Henry Hub downgraded
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Enverus’ latest Fundamental Edge report, “Let’s Make a Deal | Brent Upgrade, Henry Downgrade,” raises its 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl on a late-June deal and gradual Strait of Hormuz reopening while maintaining a capped summer Henry Hub outlook and...

Class VI approvals build, submissions slow
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Enverus Intelligence® Research’s Class VI Update 1Q26 finds approvals building while submissions slow: three final permits issued in 2026 so far, five draft permits in 1Q26, and active Class VI injection capacity at 5.2 mtpa with forecasts above 100 mtpa...

The Binding Constraint From EUV Machines to Megawatts
News Release
ByJon Haubert

About Enverus Intelligence® Research Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments,...

Time-to-power gap Big generation’s Achilles’ heel in the AI data center race
News Release
ByJon Haubert

AI-driven data center demand is shifting power markets as faster-to-deploy distributed solutions outpace grid infrastructure; Enverus details the time-to-power gap.

Northern Bets On Canada with Parallax Stake
Analyst Takes News Release
ByAndrew Dittmar

Enverus analysts break down Northern Oil and Gas’ Parallax stake and what it reveals about cross-border capital flows and Canada’s competitive energy assets.

Qatari LNG outage shifts global gas market into structural deficit
News Release
ByJon Haubert

Qatari LNG supply disruptions could shift global gas markets into a structural deficit through 2030, with elevated TTF and JKM pricing, intensified Europe-Asia LNG competition and increased strategic value for Pacific-facing export projects, according to Enverus Intelligence® Research.

Find Out How Enverus Can Help Your Business
Subscribe to the Energy Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Get Started

Sign up for our Blog

Ready to Subscribe?

Ready to Get Started?