What Enverus Global Intelligence Research and Global Scout reports from 3Q21 are relevant to supermajors’ upstream portfolios and the energy transition?
Based on supermajors’ stated goals regarding the energy transition and current output, ~1.6 MMbbl/d of liquids production is set to drop from their portfolios by 2030.
Countries like Angola, Venezuela, Iraq and Nigeria screen as high risk due to political instability and high GHG intensity of operations, in part due to routine gas flaring, while Southeast Asia and growth regions like Brazil and Guyana rank as much more favorable.
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Shale, where supermajors increased their land positions since 2019 to over 1 million net acres, is unlikely to be a near-term divestment target. Most major operators in the play are planning developments for 2021-2022 after activity fell off last year.
Increased activity in the Vaca Muerta is a result of decreased costs leading to highly competitive economics, with many companies active in the oil window seeing single-well, half-cycle breakevens below $40/bbl.
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