Superior Wind Load Forecasting in CAISO’s SP15 Hub
Our wind forecasting model continues to deliver reliable day-ahead predictions, effectively capturing the dynamic and often volatile wind generation patterns in CAISO’s SP15 Hub. This summer (June and July), our model consistently outperformed the ISO forecast, achieving a mean absolute error (MAE) of 606.21 MW and a capacity-weighted mean absolute percentage error (Cap_MAPE) of 12.27%, compared to the ISO’s MAE of 891.68 MW and Cap_MAPE of 18.05%. This level of accuracy demonstrates our model’s ability to anticipate sudden shifts—an essential capability for grid reliability and market responsiveness.
A notable example occurred July 15, when wind generation at CAISO Hub SP15 dropped sharply from 3,367 MW in the early morning to just 1,572 MW before midday, and then rebounding to 3,554 MW by the end of the day. Remarkably, our model successfully anticipated this trend one day in advance (see plot), forecasting wind generation levels above 2,500 MW before 3 a.m. and after 3 p.m., and below 1,400 MW before midday. On this day, our model achieved a MAE of 487.29 MW and a Cap_MAPE of 9.86%, significantly outperforming the ISO forecast, which had a MAE of 1,334.65 MW and a Cap_MAPE of 27.01%. This result highlights the precision and responsiveness of our forecasting solution.
With results like these, our forecasting solution continues to empower operators and analysts with the confidence to make informed, timely decisions.
Exceptional Peak Load Forecasting in ERCOT
Enverus power forecasting solutions once again delivered outstanding performance in the ERCOT market throughout July 2025. On July 30, the Coincident Peak (CP) occurred during Hour Ending (HE) 17—and Enverus precisely identified this critical interval one day in advance. HE 17 was flagged as the highest-probability hour, aligning perfectly with the actual peak.
This level of foresight gave subscribers to our 4CP alert solution valuable lead time to prepare and optimize their operations, reinforcing the strategic advantage of our forecasting tools.
Our day-ahead load forecast for July achieved a MAPE of just 1.98%, outperforming the ISO’s forecast (MAPE of 2.30%). Even more impressively, Enverus issued only seven alerts during the entire month—striking the ideal balance between accuracy and alert efficiency, helping customers stay informed without being overwhelmed.
These results underscore the precision, reliability and operational value of Enverus forecasting solutions—empowering energy market participants to stay ahead in a fast-moving environment.
Powering the Future of Load Forecasting With Precision
Enverus Power and Renewables delivers unmatched precision in wind and load forecasting, consistently outperforming industry benchmarks in CAISO and ERCOT. Our advanced analytics and proven expertise empower energy professionals to navigate volatility, optimize operations and capitalize on market opportunities with confidence.
About Enverus Power and Renewables
With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data-driven decision making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets, rely on our solutions daily.
