For more than 25 years, Enverus Load Forecasts have been the gold standard in load forecasting, delivering unmatched accuracy and reliability. This was vividly demonstrated during a significant late-season cold spell that gripped the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) region from April 4-11, 2025. As winter lingered with unseasonably cold temperatures, triggering widespread freeze warnings across at least 15 states, Enverus Load Forecasts significantly outperformed MISO’s ISO forecasts.
These warnings highlighted the potential impact of sub-freezing temperatures on agriculture and early spring growth. Cities experienced a sharp drop in temperatures, bringing widespread frost concerns well into the typical spring season.
During this late-season freeze, Enverus Load Forecasts for MISO significantly outperformed the ISO.
Below, we provide a deeper analysis.
How Did Enverus Load Forecasts Perform During the Freeze From April 4-11?
The period from April 4-11, 2025, tested the resilience of the MISO grid as a powerful Arctic air mass swept across the Midwest, plunging temperatures well below seasonal norms. This unexpected cold snap increased electricity demand as heating systems worked overtime, challenging the accuracy of load forecasting models. Enverus Load Forecast, powered by deep learning and granular datasets, rose to the occasion, delivering precise predictions that enabled utilities and traders to navigate the volatile market conditions with confidence. In this section, we break down the performance of Enverus Load Forecasts, highlighting their superior accuracy compared to MISO’s ISO forecasts during this critical period.
The temperature forecast performed well, accurately capturing the rapid onset and intensity of the cold spell. Enverus’ weather models predicted the sharp temperature declines across key MISO regions, with average highs dropping to the mid-20s°F in cities like Minneapolis and Chicago, and overnight lows dipping into the teens in parts of North Dakota and Wisconsin. These precise temperature forecasts were critical, as they directly influenced load demand projections.
During peak load hours, the Enverus forecast significantly outperformed the ISO, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.25% compared to the ISO’s 5.26%. This remarkable accuracy reflects Enverus’ ability to adapt to sudden demand spikes driven by the extreme cold, ensuring utilities could optimize resource allocation and avoid costly over- or under-forecasting. The low MAPE during peak hours highlights the strength of Enverus’ deep learning algorithms, which excel in high-stakes scenarios where precision is paramount.
Across all hours of the day, Enverus once again outperformed the ISO, achieving a MAPE of 1.03% compared to the ISO’s 3.71%. This consistent accuracy across both peak and off-peak periods demonstrates the robustness of Enverus’ forecasting platform, which seamlessly integrates weather, demand and grid data to deliver reliable predictions.
Load forecasting is becoming increasingly important—not just during unusual weather events like we experienced last week, but especially at this time of year, when wholesale power prices are heavily influenced by “Unit Outage Season.”
This year, in particular, growing generator outages are occurring earlier than usual compared to last spring’s outage season, and they’re having an outsized impact on the market.
You can count on Enverus to deliver the most accurate load forecasts and top-tier market analysis in the business.
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About Enverus Power and Renewables
With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node, and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data driven decision making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets, rely on our solutions daily.
