Trading and Risk

Coronavirus Power Demand Destruction Forecasting 101

byRob Allerman

When the coronavirus power load demand destruction began appearing in Enverus Trading & Risk’s daily ISO load forecasts, our team had to quickly tackle a new set of realities.

Just like businesses all over the world, we were faced with never-before-seen scenarios as a result of the nationwide shutdowns. Our machine learning-based forecasting tools have never learned the demand dynamics at play—nor had our team. We put our heads together and quickly came up with a plan—and a way to measure the demand destruction for our customers.

First, a primer on our typical standard operating procedure: our machine learning models look at actual temperature and power demand data from previous days and weeks, learning as it goes. The models were built to respond to load growth or anything that may be happening in the market.

This presented a minor challenge. The model was suddenly forced to predict demand in a scenario where it had no historical data to compute. Our customers were understanding that it would take several days for the model to absorb new data and relearn the market. We had customers reach out and ask us how they can track the demand destruction underway.

The solution

We launched a new model that knows what the temperatures were for the load from February 2019 to February 2020. But it doesn’t know anything that’s been happening over the last month.

Below is the first look at the results of our study—just a few days since launch. Now that we are running those two load forecasts in parallel (one that’s learning the demand destruction, and one that isn’t) you will be able to see the difference between the two loads, and you can identify the level of demand destruction.

What’s happening in ERCOT, the Texas power market?

We have measured little to no demand destruction due to the coronavirus and governments implementing policies to reduce the virus in ERCOT. However, we are starting to detect some demand destruction over the last couple of days. When comparing similar pre-COVID-19 temperatures, we are detecting 1-3% demand destruction.

In NYISO, the New York power market, it’s a different story …

In NYISO, it’s a different story. We have detected demand destruction starting early last week. When comparing similar pre-COVID-19 temperatures, we are detecting 10-15% demand destruction.

Helping power market participants in a time of need

Power trading liquidity has fallen amid the uncertainty around the coronavirus pandemic. We’d like to offer you free access to this analysis in our twice-daily reports during this tough time.

We are all in this together, and we look forward to continuing to help power traders and analysts make the best decisions for their businesses, even in trying and uncertain times. Sign up here to get access to our new demand destruction load forecasts, which we are offering to you on a complimentary basis.

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman

Rob Allerman is Senior Director of Power Analytics at Enverus. Before joining Enverus, Rob was Head of North America Power Analytics at EDF Power Trading in Houston, Texas, and spent many years as a power analyst at Deutsche Bank. Rob also worked in the western U.S. for nearly 10 years at Power Utilities and started his career as a Hydrologist for the Federal Government.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

Enverus Blog - Coterra’s big Permian projects defy degradation worries
Intelligence Oilfield Services
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

In the biggest oilfield services transaction since 2016, SLB agreed to acquire ChampionX Corp. for $7.76 billion in stock, bringing an industry leader in production chemicals into the OFS giant’s fold. ChampionX’s $420 million in net debt brings the transaction...

Geoscience Analytics
ByDai Jones

Offshore drilling is a complex and multifaceted process essential for accessing oil and gas reserves beneath the seabed. Exploration drilling is the initial phase, crucial for identifying potential oil or gas reservoirs. It involves the deployment of mobile drilling units...

ByBryn Davies

Did you know that Enverus now has 18 offices around the world, with the most recent addition of the Brno office in Czechia

available transfer capacity
Energy Transition
ByRiley Prescott

Renewable integration has experienced a remarkable surge in Texas, with the installation of more than 9 GW of renewable capacity in 2023 alone.

ByPhillip Dunning

Are you considering buying mineral rights in Texas? Before you take the next steps, familiarize yourself with the comprehensive information we've presented in this blog post.

Analyst Takes Generative AI

The energy sector is definitely drawn to the potential of artificial intelligence (AI). The promise of making things work better and more efficiently is too tempting to ignore.

Enverus News Release - Utility growth prospects: Quantifying long and short opportunities
Analyst Takes Power and Renewables
ByRob Allerman

For much of March, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) experienced significant fluctuations in power prices due to congestion, transmission outages and bearish pricing trends in SP-15. My team used Panorama to better understand and the Power Market Publications in...

Energy Transition
ByCarson Kearl

One of the most common and important questions for the power sector today is what impact artificial intelligence and the data centers needed to generate it will have on energy consumption.


Midstream is caught between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, gathering and pipeline operators, processors, storage and energy marketers face abundant opportunities and challenges when meeting customer demand.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert