Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) expects that the number of electric vehicles (EV) will exceed 40 million, 20% of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDV), and 80 million, 40% of LDVs, by 2035 and 2050, respectively. There are a variety of drivers that are taken into account to generate EIR’s load forecast. Charging behavior is one important driver in understanding EV impact.
Current EV charging behavior causes a peak in load during late evening hours when motorists return home and plug in their vehicles. This behavior is expected to change as adoption of EVs increases. As solar capacity continues to the expand the large supply of energy and lack of demand during the day will lower the cost of electricity. Drivers, enabled by smart charging, can optimize charging hours to minimize system peaks and mitigate retail costs. Today’s volatility in charging profiles (Figure 3A) has a minimal impact due to the small number of EVs on the road. These profiles are unsustainable at scale and market signals like price and time-of-use tariffs will enforce a reduction in volatility (Figure 3C).
Research Highlights
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- Electric Vehicles – Shifting Regional Volatility Into Overdrive –A detailed analysis of Enverus Intelligence Research’s view on electric vehicle load growth at the L48 zonal level.
- Long-Term Load Forecast – Returning to Growth – Our long-term power demand forecast model considers historical drivers of power demand across the Lower 48 U.S. and models variables that we believe will impact future load, including data centers, EVs, residential solar and storage, cryptocurrency mines, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage and electrification trends. This report analyzes the effects that these new exponential load drivers will have on our power demand forecasts from 2024-2050.
- Tracking the Energy Transition Market – Fed Coming to the Rescue for Highly Levered Names – The 2Q24 edition of the ETR team’s equity tracking report provides coverage across various energy transition sectors as well as integrated traditional energy businesses.
Join Enverus Intelligence® Research for the webinar, “Gas-Fired Generation | Power’s Burning Question,” and discover how natural gas will play a key role in powering the future, even as its role evolves amid the transition to renewable energy.
About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Click here to learn more.
