Energy Analytics

Clean Ammonia Exports | Riding the Blue Wave

byAmyra Mardhani, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor
Bar chart showing Ammonia Production Cost Comparison

Exxon Mobil (XOM) inked a pivotal offtake agreement with Marubeni to supply 250,000 tonnes of low-carbon ammonia annually to Japan’s Kobe Power Plant for cofiring. The deal helps to derisk XOM’s hydrogen facility planned at its Baytown complex in Texas and accelerates the final investment decision expected in 2025, with production starting in 2029. The plant will leverage natural gas and CCUS to produce 1 Bcf/d of blue hydrogen and 1 mtpa of low-carbon ammonia. By capturing 98% of CO2 emissions, it would meet Japan’s strict carbon intensity threshold of 0.87 kg CO2e/kg NH3, allowing it to participate in Japan’s contract for difference (CfD) program.

With a lack of demand for clean hydrogen and ammonia in the U.S., manufacturers are looking to foreign markets like Japan, where the CfD subsidizes low-carbon production. By stacking U.S. 45Q tax credits for carbon capture with Japan’s incentives, Enverus Intelligence® Research calculates companies can enhance financial viability, offering competitive pricing against gray ammonia. Securing international offtakers like Marubeni underscores XOM’s lead in scaling blue hydrogen and ammonia, driving decarbonization in Japan’s energy sector and boosting the global hydrogen market’s growth and competitiveness.

Companies like Savor Foods are incorporating clean energy technology into the food industry by using green hydrogen, captured carbon and other molecules to produe animal- and plant-free butter and other structured fats.

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

  • Class VI Update 1Q25 – Signs of a Slowdown – In this quarterly report series, EIR provides an overview of recent changes and additions to the growing list of Class VI wells associated with CCUS project in the U.S. Leveraging the Enverus FOUNDATIONS® – Carbon Innovation Wells database, we cover new Class VI applications, changes to permit status, permit approvals and newly disclosed project details.

  • EVOLVE 2025 – Data Center Capacity Expansion: Pushing Capex to the Limit – The rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is increasing load for the first time in decades, causing a land acquisition frenzy. Rapid advancements in hardware and software mean that delaying capacity additions can compound tech innovation. This deck presented to the Enverus EVOLVE conference examines anticipated load growth from AI, the impact of chip efficiency on forecasts and data center project development.

  • EVOLVE 2025 – Beyond the Curve: Transparent Insights Into the Future of Power Prices – This presentation to the Enverus EVOLVE conference features work to provide a clear picture of future power market supply and demand dynamics. We showcase the innovative workflow developed by EIR, highlighting a highly transparent and detailed long-term power market forecast. Our models consider a wide range of factors, including load growth driven by artificial intelligence, transport electrification, reshoring of manufacturing and an increasingly renewable-dominated generation mix.

About Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR)

Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macroeconomic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.

Picture of Amyra Mardhani, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor

Amyra Mardhani, Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) Contributor

Amyra joined the Enverus Intelligence® Research team, focusing on Energy Transition Research, in September 2024. She studied Business Analytics at the University of Calgary and brings nearly two years of experience in investment management from the private wealth industry. With a strong background in data analysis and financial insights, Amyra is passionate about leveraging data to support strategic decisions in the evolving energy sector.

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