As energy advisors and renewable energy consultants prepare for 2026, the power sector is entering a period of rapid transformation. With data center growth, electrification, and evolving policy landscapes driving unprecedented changes, your clients need actionable insights to make informed investment decisions and optimize operational efficiency.
The recent 2026 Power and Renewables outlook webinar delivered expert perspectives on the trends shaping the grid, capacity markets, and technology choices. This recap distills the key takeaways to help you guide stakeholders through changes and complexities that we expect to shape 2026.
Key Drivers Shaping the 2026 Power Market
The American power grid stands at a crossroads that few anticipated just five years ago. While renewable energy dominated headlines and investment portfolios, a fundamental shift has been quietly reshaping the entire electricity landscape.
The focus is shifting from pure renewable development to reliability and affordability. Capacity prices in PJM have surged, reflecting system-wide scarcity for generation. The Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) framework highlights the value of thermal resources during extreme events, while renewables and batteries play supporting roles.
What is driving this shift?
- Demand Growth & Electrification: Data centers, electric vehicles, and industrial electrification are fueling unprecedented load growth—projected at 17.4% by 2035 and over 40% by 2050. This surge is concentrated in hotspots like PJM Dom and ERCOT West.
- Policy & Market Dynamics: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OB3) and the accelerated roll-off of IRA tax credits are reshaping project economics, especially wind and solar. Navigating these policy headwinds and identifying where incentives still create value is critical.
- Balancing Decarbonization Priorities: The market’s complexity now requires balancing decarbonization goals with the realities of grid stability and cost. Staying ahead means interpreting these trends, anticipating regulatory shifts, and building resilient strategies. In this environment, adapting to evolving market signals is essential—reliability, flexibility, and strategic asset allocation are more critical than ever.
Technological Forecast: Three Phases of Market Transformation
See how the next 25 years will unfold, with distinct phases for solar, coal, and nuclear technologies.
The market will move through three phases:
- 2025–2035: Solar and battery projects rush to capitalize on expiring tax credits. However, it is important to also prepare for a sharp shift in project economics post 2027.
- 2035–2040: As coal plants retire, natural gas and batteries will fill the gap in baseload capacity. This transition period may bring volatility in both pricing and reliability.
- 2040–2050: Small modular reactors (SMRs) and behind-the-meter solar are expected to gain traction as cost curves improve and policy mandates drive adoption. There is an opportunity to benefit from emerging technologies and new business models in distributed energy.
Aligning Investment Decisions with Market Realities
Appetite for gas-fired assets remains strong, with rising valuations and investor interest. However, oversupply risks may emerge if demand growth falls short due to data center delays or efficiency gains. Developers face headwinds from policy changes, but batteries and hybrid projects offer attractive economics, especially in markets like PJM. Geothermal and advanced nuclear retain full tax credit eligibility, positioning them well for future growth. Data centers and other load centers can participate in demand response programs, increasing grid flexibility without straining peak load.
Watch the Webinar Replay for Actionable Insights
To move from market awareness to effective action in 2026, it’s essential to hear directly from the experts. The full Enverus webinar replay offers in-depth analysis, practical recommendations for energy advisors and consultants plus answers to the questions your clients expect you to know:
- Where will demand growth be strongest, and how should we plan for it?
- How will rising capacity prices in PJM and other markets impact power costs and investment? returns?
- What signals in M&A activity should investors and advisors act on now?
Watch the webinar replay to discover how you can turn these insights into strategic decisions and operational success in 2026.
