What’s the Bess(t) Path Forward? | Solar and Storage Targets Rising

Another utility is betting big on solar and storage. Duke Energy filed its 2026 Carolinas Resource Plan in August, calling for 18.5 GW of solar and 13 GW of battery energy storage systems, or BESS, over the next 15 years. The plan extends a broader utility trend toward pairing renewable generation with dispatchable BESS capacity to serve evening
peak demand.

The Carolinas are hardly alone. New York and Virginia have established major clean energy ambitions, including Virginia’s target of more than 20 GW of energy storage by 2045, enacted earlier this year. More than half of the Lower 48 states have adopted long-term climate goals, and 13 have set specific storage targets. Solar and BESS projects, in both stand-alone and hybrid configurations, have gained traction across U.S. power markets.

However, merchant economics do not align with development at the scale envisioned by many state and utility plans. In downstate New York, incentives make up more than half of the revenue stack needed to break even over 15 years, presenting a warning sign for developers assessing the feasibility of front-of-the-meter projects. Enverus Intelligence® Research forecasts steady solar and BESS additions through 2050. However, weak merchant economics and heavy reliance on policy support cast doubt on whether the most ambitious mandated goals will be met.

Research Highlights:

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• IREN NAV – Strike While the IREN’s Hot – This report presents our valuation of IREN, highlights the key long-term value drivers of its data center portfolio and considers the effects of its international portfolio on our target share price.

Top Three Takeaways:

1: What does Duke Energy’s 2026 Carolinas Resource Plan call for in solar and storage?

Duke Energy filed its 2026 Carolinas Resource Plan in August, calling for 18.5 GW of solar and 13 GW of BESS over the next 15 years. The plan reflects a broader utility trend of pairing renewable generation with dispatchable BESS capacity to serve evening peak demand.

2: How widespread are state storage and climate targets beyond the Carolinas?

New York and Virginia have both set major clean energy ambitions, including Virginia’s target of more than 20 GW of energy storage by 2045. More than half of the Lower 48 states have adopted long-term climate goals, and 13 have set specific storage targets.

3: Can merchant economics support these ambitious solar and BESS targets?

Not easily. Merchant economics do not align with development at the scale many state and utility plans envision. In downstate New York, incentives make up more than half of the revenue stack needed to break even over 15 years, a warning sign for developers evaluating front-of-the-meter projects. Enverus Intelligence Research forecasts steady solar and BESS additions through 2050, but weak merchant economics and heavy reliance on policy support cast doubt on whether the most ambitious mandated goals will be met.