Power & Renewables

Precision Power Forecasting: ERCOT 4CP Peak Day Identification in July 2026

byEnverus

The ERCOT Coincident Peak (CP) for July occurred during Hour Ending 18 on July 22. Enverus accurately identified the peak day one day in advance, giving customers valuable time to prepare and respond.

Earlier in the month, Enverus identified several potential CP risk days and issued a few alerts. During the final third of the month, a stronger heat wave increased the likelihood of a peak event, prompting additional CP call-outs. Ultimately, these alerts successfully identified the peak day on July 22.

Figure 1. Alert received by Enverus customers who subscribed to the 4CP alert solution, one day in advance, capturing the right peak day.

In total, Enverus issued:

  • 9 CP-day related calls throughout July

This means CP alerts were issued for 29.03% of the days during the month. On July 22, the Enverus day-ahead load forecast achieved a daily MAPE of 1.07%, compared to 1.10% for the ERCOT day-ahead load forecast. This result further validates the accuracy of our CP call issued the previous day. These results highlight the precision, responsiveness, and adaptability of Enverus forecasting tools during critical peak demand events.

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