CALGARY, Alberta (Dec. 3, 2025) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing a new analysis forecasting U.S. data center load growth and its implications for natural gas demand through 2030.
EIR projects 30 gigawatts (GW) of new U.S. data center capacity over the next five years—significantly below the 50 GW forecasted by major grid operators. This more conservative outlook reflects the impact of stricter utility requirements, which have already reduced speculative project proposals by more than 50% in states such as Ohio.
“Our research shows that while data center expansion will drive substantial energy demand, it will have a marginal impact on natural gas in the immediate years,” said Jimmy McNamara, CFA, principal analyst at EIR. “By focusing on confirmed projects and real-world constraints, we provide a more accurate outlook for both the power and natural gas sectors.”
Key takeaways:
- EIR forecasts 30 GW of new U.S. data center capacity by 2030, compared to 50 GW projected by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM Interconnection (PJM).
- Recent policy changes in states like Ohio, including higher power costs and stricter credit requirements, led to a 15 GW (over 50%) drop in proposed data center projects.
- If all new capacity were gas-fired, it could add up to 4.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of incremental Lower 48 natural gas demand by 2030; however, gas growth will be lower as grid-connected data centers use mixed generation sources. EIR is more confident in 2.1 Bcf/d of growth from behind-the-meter projects with dedicated gas generation.
- For example, a 1 GW data center uses approximately 140 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of natural gas, less than 1% of Appalachia’s daily production.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus PRISM®, Enverus FOUNDATIONS® and Enverus Mosaic.
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Additional Resources:
Members of the media are invited to attend our upcoming 2026 Power and Renewables Outlook webinar on Dec. 16, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. CT.
U.S. power demand is breaking records, capacity markets are hitting price ceilings, and 90% of new builds are renewables—but firming capacity is falling short. Explore what’s driving record demand, how the grid is adapting, the implications of PJM’s latest auction hitting the ceiling, and smart strategies for 2026 including storage and flexible demand. Register Here.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
