CALGARY, Alberta (Nov. 12, 2025) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy-dedicated SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing its latest Fundamental Edge report, “Stock Surplus Overshadows Russian Risk,” which revises its Brent price forecast downward due to rising oil inventories.
EIR has lowered its Brent crude forecast by $5/bbl for 2026 to an annual average of $55/bbl, citing aggressive OPEC+ supply growth and OECD inventories nearing 3 Bbbl, levels last seen during the 2015 shale war and 2020 COVID-19 downturn. Meanwhile, Henry Hub winter prices are forecast at $3.30/MMBtu, driven by a 150–300 Bcf surplus and warmer-than-normal weather expectations.
“Despite geopolitical risk, the expectations for future stock levels offer downward price pressure for oil early 2026,” said Al Salazar, director at Enverus Intelligence® Research. “Inventories will swell, and while Russian oil sanctions could offer upside, they remain outside our base case.”
Key takeaways:
- Brent crude forecast for 2026 revised to $55/bbl, with prices expected to dip to $50/bbl in 1H26.
- OECD inventories are projected to reach 3 Bbbl in 1H26, echoing past downturns.
- Henry Hub winter price forecast set at $3.30/MMBtu due to storage surplus and mild weather. However, significant upside exists in our view.
- Permian Basin pipeline expansion (~16 Bcf/d) reduces reliance on Haynesville, adding long-term natural gas price risk.
- Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and Japan Korea Marker (JKM) prices are expected to hold near $11/MMBtu through 2030 despite global LNG oversupply concerns.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus PRISM®, Enverus FOUNDATIONS® and Enverus Instant Analyst™.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
