CALGARY, Alberta (Jan. 14, 2026) Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy SaaS company that leverages generative AI across its solutions, is releasing new research analyzing the implications of Venezuela’s re-entry into global oil markets for U.S. Gulf Coast and Canadian crude dynamics.
Venezuela’s return to the global supply system is projected to increase oil production by approximately 500,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035. Despite recent political changes and potential sanctions relief, EIR finds that near-term impacts on Brent prices will be muted due to existing market oversupply and China’s strategic stockpiling last year.
“Even with accelerated sanctions relief, we still see 1–2 million barrels per day of global oversupply in the first half of 2026 and limited incremental volumes from Venezuela,” said Al Salazar, Head of Macro Research and Director at EIR. “Our near-term Brent outlook remains unchanged.”
“Sanctions relief will redirect Venezuelan crude toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, increasing competition among heavy barrels and widening Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials. The region’s extensive refining capacity, combined with Canada’s ability to flexibly redirect exports, will be pivotal as market dynamics evolve.”
Key takeaways:
- Venezuela’s oil production is forecast to rise to 1.5 million barrels per day by 2035, with a potential high-case scenario of 3.0 million barrels per day if political and investment conditions improve.
- Near-term Brent price impacts are expected to be minimal, as global markets remain oversupplied by 1–2 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026.
- Western Canadian Select (WCS) Houston differentials have widened relative to WTI, reflecting market anticipation of Venezuelan crude re-entering the region.
- Long-term global oil balances are projected to face a deficit of 2 million barrels per day by 2035, creating space for Venezuela’s incremental supply without materially impacting prices.
EIR’s analysis leverages proprietary data and modeling, and draws from a variety of products including Global Research and Enverus AI.
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Additional Resources:
Venezuela’s return to the global oil stage could reshape trade flows, pricing dynamics, and investment strategies. Join Enverus experts for a data-driven webinar and overview of Venezuela’s re-emergence and its implications for U.S. Gulf Coast and, Canadian crude prices and global upstream strategies. Register Here.
About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
