CALGARY, Alberta (Feb. 10, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the most trusted energy‑dedicated SaaS company leveraging generative AI across its solutions, has released its latest Fundamental Edge report raising near‑term oil price forecasts amid escalating geopolitical risk while maintaining a cautious outlook as global oil inventories are expected to continue building.
EIR raised its first‑quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $60 per barrel, up from $50, lifting its full‑year 2026 average forecast to $58 per barrel. The revision reflects tighter near‑term crude balances driven by political instability in Iran, outages at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field and weather‑related production disruptions. These factors have complicated the path to a more durable oil price recovery.
“Geopolitical risk in Iran and transitory supply outages could delay our anticipated reconciliation of elevated OECD crude and product inventories, as prices remain tolerable for U.S. producers,” said Al Salazar, director of research at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- Brent crude forecasts were raised to $60 per barrel for 1Q26, lifting the 2026 annual average to $58 per barrel, driven by heightened geopolitical risk in Iran and ongoing supply outages.
- U.S. crude and product inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, are building at roughly 1 million barrels per day (excluding the impact of Winter Storm Fern) and stand near 1.3 billion barrels, a level last seen in early 2021.
- OECD oil inventories are expected to rise 100 million to 150 million barrels above the five‑year average in the first half of 2026, increasing pressure on near‑term oil prices and futures‑curve structure.
- Henry Hub natural gas prices are held at $3.60 per million British thermal units for summer 2026, though slowing Lower 48 power demand presents growing downside risk.
- Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices averaged $11.80 per million British thermal units in January, aligning with EIR’s expectation that prices will remain in a $10 to $12 range as global liquefied natural gas capacity expands.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus PRISM® and Enverus FOUNDATIONS®.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
