The scrapping of a planned 600 MW expansion at the Stargate data center in Abilene, Texas, serves as a reminder that large load interconnection queues continue to be inflated. OpenAI and ORCL ended talks this month on the add‑on while the existing Abilene campus continues to operate and build out. The multiyear AI infrastructure project includes plans to develop up to 4.5 GW of capacity across additional sites. As independent system operators and utilities scrutinize interconnection backlogs, more speculative projects are likely to fall away.
Enverus Intelligence® Research has extensively modeled data center expansion potential at the project level. In our latest outlook (Figure 1), U.S. capacity is projected to climb to roughly 50 GW by 2030, driven by a surge in hyperscaler capital spending and AI demand. The same analysis flags rising constraints: global chip supply is a near-term cap on buildouts and up to 20% of projected load may be behind-the-meter with unclear interconnection timelines. The Stargate pullback validates these constraints, while illustrating the precarious state of large load queues.
This blog offers just a glimpse of the powerful analysis Energy Transition Research delivers on the trending themes. Don’t miss the full picture.
Research Highlights:
- Class VI Update 4Q25 | Incremental Progress, Persistent Delays – In this quarterly report series, Enverus Intelligence® Research provides an overview of recent changes and additions to the growing list of Class VI wells associated with CCUS project in the U.S. Leveraging the Enverus FOUNDATIONS® – Carbon Innovation Wells database, we cover new Class VI applications, changes to permit status, permit approvals and newly disclosed project details.
- Time to Power | Big Generations’ Achilles’ Heel – AI-driven data center demand is creating a structural advantage for oilfield services companies and energy-as-a-service providers as legacy equipment manufacturers like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy face a 142 GW backlog. Faster, off-grid power from firms such as LBRT is drawing hyperscalers that value speed over cost, positioning OFS names trading at 6x EV/EBITDA for potential utility-style rerating.
- CO2-EOR | Path to Profitable Carbon Storage – Using anthropogenic CO2 in place of natural supply allows 45Q credits to transform CO2 from a sunk operating cost into a source of revenue for permanently stored volumes. In this report, Enverus Intelligence® Research leverages our CO2-EOR cost model to analyze how converting an existing CO2-EOR operation from natural to anthropogenic CO2 impacts financial returns.
DID YOU KNOW?
MSFT’s Project Natick underwater data center proved to be up to 8x more reliable than land-based versions by using the cold ocean as a massive natural radiator, reducing energy-intensive cooling.
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Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
