Power and Renewables

Predicting the 630__B Constraint With Transmission Impacts in ERCOT

byEric Palmer

Over the last seven days, the Enverus Power and Renewables forecast has accurately predicted the 630__B constraint (KLNSW-HHSTH 138 kV with contingency DSALKLN5) in ERCOT. This major constraint near the town of Killeen, TX had the second highest total congestion shadow price, a major component of ERCOT prices, more than $13,000 in total congestion last week. While this congestion is fundamentally driven by high wind and solar generation, there were two transmission outages responsible for increasing flow on the constraint by 50%, while other longer term transmission outages also had a smaller impact on the same constraint.

In the screenshot below, the purple shading in the first chart reflects the P&R forecasted RT congestion, while the red shading represents the actual RT shadow prices. Data to the left of the middle gray dotted vertical line represents our RT MUSE constraint flow along with our forecasted constraint flow, while data to the right of that same vertical line represents the future forecast of constraints flows and forecasted shadow prices (purple). 

While most of the predicted hours produced shadow prices on this constraint, the RT shadow prices came in below forecast on 4/13 as the transmission outage driving this congestion ended four days ahead of schedule during HE 21 on 4/12. The historical forecast shown on the screen for each operating day was created as of 4 a.m. of the prior day.

Monday and Tuesday (4/15 and 4/16) are currently not predicted to have any binding shadow prices of this constraint, however forecasted flows remain extremely close to the transmission limit. On Thursday, April 18, new outages similar to the prior week will begin at 7 a.m. and remain out for the following 10 days, with strong shadow prices forecast for Thursday (4/18), Friday morning (4/19), and Saturday midday (4/20). This constraint drives upside to the South Hub and Load Zone, as well as the AEN, CPS, and LCRA Load Zones, while adding downside pricing to the West Hub and Load Zone. (see shift factors below)

Please reach out if you have any questions or if you would like a demo of the ERCOT Power and Renewables Forecast and MUSE.

Picture of Eric Palmer

Eric Palmer

Eric is part of the Commercial Strategy team in Power & Renewables at Enverus, where he focuses on power and congestion products. Prior to joining Enverus, he spent 15 years in numerous roles including trading and generation asset optimization, power market analysis, and power product development.

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