Power and Renewables

Powering through outage season: A breakdown of PJM’s WHUB/NIHUB spread

byKenneth Curtis

It’s that time of year when generator and transmission outages are at their peak in PJM. The first half of April has not disappointed volatility-wise as the WHUB/NIHUB spread has set new 30-day highs largely driven by congestion.

Figure 1: Day-ahead WHUB/NIHUB MCC spread for the last 30 days with the constraints driving this spread split out below

Among the top constraints to impact this spread are CHIC_AVE – PRAXAR (138KV) and WEED-MAHO (138KV) in northern Illinois, which discount NIHUB when binding. 

Figure 2: Top three day-ahead binding constraints impacting NIHUB for the last 30 days

Using MUSE’s decomposition views to breakdown the drivers of these constraints by transmission outages, generation and load, we can quickly see if outage season is the driver behind these constraints.

Looking at constraint flows and decompositions for CHIC_AVE – PRAXAR (138KV) we can see the frequency of DA binding has increased with two outages that began in March. These outages don’t roll off until May, indicating this may continue to be a driver of the WHUB/NIHUB spread. 

Figure 3: MUSE constraint decomposition for CHIC_AVE – PRAXAIR (138KV)

Next, let’s dive into WEED-MAHO (138KV), wherewe can see day-ahead binding events increasing in frequency with two outages that began in March. Recently, however, an additional outage has started that is relieving this congestion, decreasing the frequency of DA binding events. This gives a signal that the congestion may alleviate and, in turn, reduce pressure on the WHUB/NIHUB spread.

Figure 3: Real-time/day-ahead shadow prices for WEED-MAHO (138KV) with base decompositions below

Outage analysis on WEED-MAHO (138KV) is possible due to MUSE PJM’s new Base Decomposition feature. With this feature, you can now understand the impact of transmission outages on congestion for any constraint, even ones without constraint flows, giving you a leading indicator for decision making this outage season.

Do you have other spread you would like to analyze? Want to see how MUSE could help you make faster, more confident decisions? Let us help you be the first to know exactly why new constraints bind. 

Kenneth Curtis

Kenneth Curtis

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

Energy Transition
ByAlex Nevokshonoff

Each hub developed a unique hydrogen production strategy that was chosen to best utilize the regionally available resources such as renewable energy type and quality, nuclear availability, existing infrastructure and carbon sequestration basin viability.

OFS-banner-485926689 (1)
ByErin Faulkner

Nearly a decade ago, Enverus, then known as DrillingInfo, posted a Gulf of Mexico (GOM) primer on its blog. It remains one of our most popular posts. A few things have changed since 2014, so we decided it was time...

Electric Vehicle Charging
Energy Transition
ByPrashant Kumar

The electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid EV markets are experiencing significant growth in North America, Europe and China. The surge in demand has prompted notable advancements in battery technology to cater to the expanding market.

Energy Analytics Financial Services
ByTucker Keren

The North American play-level inventory rankings are in, and there’s been some shakeups. After almost a year since the last publication by Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), the remaining inventory by play has seen some movement on the leaderboards. While EIR...

Enverus Blog - What you should know about the future of mineral acquisitions
ByPhillip Dunning

Take the guess work out of providing your family insights into the estate and be empowered to manage your assets.

Intelligence Midstream
ByErin Faulkner

Midstream operators connected 3,524 oil and gas wells to gathering systems in the U.S. during Q2, according to an analysis using Enverus Core data presented in the most recent issue of Midstream Pulse. This is up slightly from the 3,447...

Energy Transition Financial Services

The shift away from hydrocarbons and towards renewable and low-carbon technologies is not only changing the way we power our lives, but also offers a wealth of investment opportunities for those who can decipher the complex landscape. Traditional institutional investors...

Enverus Blog - Analyst Takes: Looking back at March energy trends
Analyst Takes Trading and Risk
ByChris Griggs

As we commence October, it’s crucial to examine the ever-evolving energy landscape from the past month. Our Enverus Intelligence® | Research (EIR) team has diligently dissected key trends and breakthroughs, delivering insightful and data-driven perspectives that empower you to make...

Power and Renewables

2022 marked a significant milestone for renewable wind generation in North America. New wind capacity reached 14.7GW (gigawatts) from 93 projects, an increase from 2021 of 12GW from 54 projects. Looking to 2024, winds of opportunity show 55GW from a...

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Get Energy Transition Research updates straight to your inbox by filling out the form below.

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert