In the fast-evolving energy sector, accurate forecasting is critical for grid reliability, operational efficiency and market success. As of September 2025, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) in Ontario face unique challenges driven by renewable integration, surging demand and market shifts. Enverus has recently released new advanced forecasting solutions in CAISO and IESO tailored to tackling these obstacles, empowering energy professionals with precise, actionable insights.
CAISO: Navigating Renewable Variability and Demand Surges
CAISO’s forecasting challenges stem from California’s aggressive clean energy goals. The high penetration of solar and wind resources creates steep evening demand ramps due to midday renewable.1 Battery storage, dispatchable pump loads, extreme weather and rising demand from data centers and electrification further complicate load predictions and strain grid capacity.
Enverus Solutions for CAISO
Enverus new enhanced Day-Ahead Market (DAM) forecast models address these issues by integrating data from the Today’s Outlook Demand Trend, which excludes dispatchable pump loads and battery charging for a clearer view of actual system demand, unlike the traditional OASIS CAISO Demand Forecast.
- Enhanced net demand accuracy: Using real-time telemetry from Today’s Outlook, Enverus models better capture true demand conditions, helping operators manage renewable intermittency and evening demand spikes. Available for system-wide, SP15 and NP15 regions, these forecasts complement OASIS-based models to reduce uncertainty.
- Proven performance: From June 1 to Aug. 31, 2025, Enverus new one-day-ahead forecast achieved a 17.9% reduction in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), dropping from 2.29% to 1.88%, ensuring reliable planning during heat events and demand spikes.
- Flexible operations: we will continue to run both the legacy and new models in parallel. At this time, there are no plans to retire the existing model.
IESO: Managing Rapid Demand Growth and Market Volatility
In 2025, the IESO introduced new pricing dynamics, such as the Day-Ahead Ontario Zonal Price (DA-OZP), complicating the identification of peak hours for the Industrial Conservation Initiative (ICI). These shifts create a high-stakes environment for market participants, as misjudging peak periods can lead to costly penalties or missed savings opportunities under ICI’s stringent requirements.
Enverus Solutions for IESO
Enverus new IESO forecast models provide granular, reliable insights to navigate these complexities:
- Ontario Load Demand Forecast (15-Day Horizon): This model delivers hourly forecasts up to 15 days ahead for ICI Ontario Demand, helping identify the top five peak hours critical for ICI participants and system operators. It supports proactive planning to manage high-demand periods.
- Regional Demand Forecasts (15-Day Horizon): Responding to recent market changes, we’ve developed models for four aggregated areas covering Ontario’s electrical zones:
- Northwest: Northwest
- Northeast: Northeast
- Southeast: East, Essa, Ottawa, Toronto
- Southwest: Bruce, Niagara, Southwest, West
The Total Ontario Demand is calculated as the sum of these regions, offering a comprehensive view.
Image 1. Four Zone demand forecasts in IESO.2
- Day-Ahead Zonal Price (DA-OZP) Forecast: Enverus new model predicts the DA-OZP, an hourly, load-weighted average of locational marginal prices at non-dispatchable loads, enabling better price anticipation for residential and business consumers.
Trust Enverus to Tackle the Most Complex Forecasting Challenges
Enverus is dedicated to solving the toughest problems in energy forecasting, continuing to deliver innovative solutions that drive accuracy, efficiency, and adaptability:
- Pursuing precision: Enverus models cut through the complexity of renewable variability, demand surges, and market shifts with data-driven insights, such as the 17.9% MAPE reduction in CAISO forecasts, ensuring reliable predictions for critical operations.
- Streamlining efficiency: By providing granular forecasts—like IESO’s regional models and DA-OZP predictions—we enable cost optimization, congestion management and peak load planning, saving time and resources.
- Embracing adaptability: Regular model retraining and parallel operations ensure Enverus tools evolve with market dynamics, keeping you ahead in fast-changing environments like CAISO and IESO.
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About Enverus Power and Renewables
With a 15-year head start in renewables and grid intelligence, real-time grid optimization to the node and unparalleled expertise in load forecasting that has outperformed the ISO forecasts, Enverus Power and Renewables is uniquely positioned to support all power insight needs and data-driven decision making. More than 6,000 businesses, including 1,000+ in electric power markets, rely on our solutions daily.
