As we move into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election, the implications of a Republican or Democratic win are top of mind for energy leaders. Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are on the record and have made policy suggestions that demonstrate contrasting approaches to energy policy that will shape the industry for years to come. While there are implications for energy with either candidate, the outcome of next month’s election will determine just how rapid change is likely to be.
In the following analysis, we present Derek Brower’s views on the potential impacts that a victory for either candidate might have on the energy industry across the United States and internationally. The insights, claims and information originate from Derek Brower’s participation in Andrew Gillick’s captivating webinar, “Morning Energy Live With Derek Brower: Trump vs. Harris: A Tale of Two Energy Policies.” Derek Brower is the U.S. political news editor overseeing the Financial Times Washington DC Bureau and the 2024 presidential election coverage. Andrew Gillick is a managing director with Enverus Intelligence® Research.
To hear firsthand Derek Brower’s assessment and opinion on energy in the aftermath of the 2024 US election, watch our on-demand webinar here:
Foreign Energy Policy: Status Quo vs. Isolationism
The election outcome could significantly impact the country’s stance on foreign relations, given the president’s substantial control over foreign policy. Case in point, current geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, pose high risks to energy stability with the United States using its diplomatic and military levers to address increased risks from potential conflicts involving Israel, Iran, and oil supply. Add in the Ukraine war and heightened tension with China, the last four years have been disastrous in terms of foreign policy, which sets the stage for either candidate’s next step.
A win for Harris is likely to result in the status quo. With veteran statesman Phillip Gordon as her foreign policy advisor, Harris’ approach will probably mirror the Biden administration’s existing policies. She would likely maintain the U.S.’s supportive stance toward traditional allies as she pledged during her speech at the Democratic National Convention. This means continued support for Israel and a cautious approach toward adversaries such as Russia and Iran.
When it comes to renewable energy and democratic values, Harris might adopt a pragmatic approach that seeks to balance American energy interests. Her administration might pursue gradual progress in energy transition while ensuring foreign alliances remain secure, maintaining the current geopolitical status quo.
Viewing American energy independence as just that, Trump could revive an administration centered around a more isolationist stance. He has repeatedly stated his desire to pull back from foreign conflicts by ending them with a phone call. His administration might de-emphasize involvement in international conflicts, which could lead to a reduced U.S. presence in global energy disputes. While this approach would allow his administration to focus on domestic priorities such as immigration policy, reducing the immediate foreign policy risks might create uncertainties regarding the stability of global energy supply.
Trump has also shown a willingness to renegotiate trade agreements and ignite trade wars, particularly with China. These foreign policy strategies could impact the global economic landscape and, in turn, energy demand and supply chains.
To get the full commentary on Derek Brower’s views on the candidate’s foreign policy outcomes, watch our on-demand webinar here:
Domestic Energy Policy: Green Energy vs. Hydrocarbons
Domestically, both Harris and Trump have distinct perspectives on hydrocarbons and renewable energy investments, which could affect policies on LNG exports, offshore drilling and renewable energy infrastructure. Specifically, Trump is expected to sustain U.S. energy dominance by prioritizing oil and gas over renewable energy development, expanding drilling opportunities and reducing regulatory oversight. He has also indicated plans to expedite permits for pipelines and is an outspoken advocate for revitalizing nuclear power generation.
The future of renewables and green energy looks brighter with a Harris win. She is anticipated to foster a diversified energy mix that balances renewables with oil and gas. While she might retain Biden’s focus on green energy, her pragmatic approach could foster a slower, more measured transition. Her administration might continue to encourage renewable energy investments through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), though potential legislative hurdles could complicate full implementation.
In terms of LNG, both Harris and Trump are likely to reverse the Biden administration’s pause on exports to countries who have not signed a formal free trade agreement. Trump is likely to reverse on principal while Harris reverses the executive decision because the ban on LNG exports to non-FTA countries has had no discernable benefit to allies.
Derek Brower’s full view on the candidate’s domestic energy policy can be found on our on-demand webinar here:
Inflation Reduction Act Implementation Bottlenecks
While 2022’s IRA introduced a treasure trove of potential tax credits for renewable energy and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) developers, it also placed new restrictions on oil and gas operators in the form of the waste emissions charge and sweeping reforms to the federal leasing process. However, permitting remains a contentious issue with implications for both traditional energy, power, and renewable energy projects. Combined with IRA tax credits with expiration dates and a sluggish response from federal agencies to create the processes to actually pay out credits, developers are hesitant to take on certain projects, including CCUS and hydrogen.
Consider Boston, which imports LNG from abroad when permits to build a pipeline from the nearby Marcellus Shale would be a logical solution. Or renewable energy advocates who oppose permits to build wind turbines or solar farms in line of sight of their home. Lack of permits is also holding back the large-scale modernization and expansion of the power grid by preventing transmission from being built all across the country. For many traditional and renewable energy developers, permits are standing in the way of progress. As a result, on day one as president, Trump or Harris will come under intense pressure to reform permitting processes that currently delay projects.
Harris is likely to advocate for balanced permitting reform that supports both green energy initiatives and traditional infrastructure. While progressive Democrats might resist reforms that facilitate oil and gas development projects, there is growing bipartisan support for reforming the process to accommodate green energy demands. Trump will probably take a more aggressive stance on permitting, accelerating the process for oil and gas while potentially stalling renewable energy projects. However, large-scale repeal of the IRA is unlikely without strong congressional support. Rather than dismantling the IRA, Trump could hinder its implementation through executive actions that delay funding for green energy initiatives.
Get Derek Brower’s full commentary on the future of the IRA by viewing our on-demand webinar here:
Final Thoughts
Both candidates offer unique perspectives on energy policy that reflect broader ideological differences. Trump’s isolationist foreign policies and focus on American energy independence may boost domestic oil and gas development, permitting and midstream infrastructure while injecting uncertainty into global energy markets. In contrast, Harris is likely to borrow several chapters from the Biden administration’s international relations playbook, focusing on a balanced energy mix at home and maintaining a commitment to both traditional and renewable energy sources.
While the energy sector is likely to see policy changes with either a Trump or Harris administration, the direction and speed of those changes will vary based on who occupies the Oval Office. Regardless of the election outcome, energy leaders should prepare for a complex landscape, marked by evolving regulatory frameworks and geopolitical uncertainties. In that sense, the next four years are likely to look and feel like the last four.
To hear Derek Brower’s firsthand assessment and opinion on energy in the aftermath of the 2024 U.S. election, watch our on-demand webinar here:
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