Energy Analytics Power and Renewables

Coal Trips, Congestion Hits: Taking a Look at Blessing – Pavlov Congestion

byRush Milam

With the recent heat in Texas, you may have noticed pockets of congestion which result in large price spikes, especially along the coast.

But is the heat the only cause for the congestion? Are there other factors at play? To make better forecasts and confident trades, we need to get a comprehensive understanding of the causes of congestion.

To do so, let’s break down the Blessing-Pavlov constraint with our near real-time generation and congestion monitoring tool, MUSE.

The image below shows the MUSE constraint breakdown of Blessing-Pavlov flo SSTPESP8 over the last 15 days. The top chart displays the constraint flows (green line) and binding hours for RT and DA (red and purple shading, respectively).

First, we used MUSE to look at the impact of any transmission outages. One thing that jumps out quickly is an outage that reduced flows over the weekend. Otherwise there doesn’t appear to be a large impact from transmission outages.

Next, we looked at the impact by fuel type at various aggregations. Looking at the zonal breakdown, we can see that south wind was the top impact at the fuel/zone level. Also, there is the negative or relieving impact from coast weather zone coal. Why is this important? News came out early this week of a fire at a Houston-area coal plant, which led to the unit being taken offline.

Finally, we looked at the load impact on this constraint. Immediately, it is apparent that the coast weather zone load plays an important role in the Blessing congestion.

In just a few minutes, we’re able to see multiple drivers for the Blessing-Pavlov constraint with a quick click through MUSE.

Do you have other constraints you would like to analyze? Want to see how MUSE could help you make faster, more confident decisions? Let us help you be the first to know exactly why new constraints bind. Get started today

Picture of Rush Milam

Rush Milam

Rush is a Senior Manager of Commercial Strategy with Enverus' Power & Renewables team, where he focuses on our congestion and shorter-term power solutions. Before joining Enverus, he spent more than 10 years in various risk, analyst and trading roles in the energy and commodities industry. He is based in Austin, Texas.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

risk-manager-sector
Trading and Risk
ByChris Griggs

In the fast-paced world of energy commodity trading, staying ahead demands more than just raw data. Insightful, actionable intelligence allows you to forecast, plan and respond to global market shifts confidently.

nuclear-worker
Energy Transition
ByAshmal Dawoodani

This ETT covers EIRs recent report reviewing advanced nuclear technologies.

trading-and-risk
Trading and Risk
ByAl Salazar

Al Salazar of Enverus Intelligence® Research predicts rising crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by market dynamics, OPEC discipline, and seasonal demand. Learn more about the bullish outlook for Brent crude and Henry Hub natural gas prices.

operators
Oilfield Services Operators
ByJose Neto

In the pursuit of capital efficiency, operators strive to continually improve drilling and completion performance, especially in the challenging landscapes of Canada's unconventional plays.

energy-transition
Energy Transition
BySmayan Sharma

The Inflation Reduction Act spurred a surge of project announcements and developments on the molecules side of the energy transition, creating numerous opportunities for capital deployment.

Enverus Blog - 6 reasons to attend Enverus’ 2023 EVOLVE Conference
Analyst Takes
ByAndrew Dittmar

In a significant move reshaping the U.S. shale landscape, ConocoPhillips has agreed to purchase Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion, marking a shift towards multi-basin operations and promising a robust future for shareholders with enhanced capital returns and increased operational scale.

persona---Operators-with-non-operating-assets-
Operators
ByMac Graham

The oil and gas industry is no stranger to uncertainty. Producers contend with a myriad of challenges – everything from supply chain uncertainty, geopolitical shocks, ROI demands from investors and an unpredictable policy environment – so it’s no wonder a...

energy-transition
Energy Transition
ByKevin Kang

The anticipated end of a two-year reprieve on solar panel tariffs from China coincided with unexpected tariffs on other energy transition-related sectors.

brno-enverus
Operators
ByBryn Davies

Our twelve-member team embarked on the memorable Vltava Relay challenge, covering 360km in 35 hours, with 300 other competing teams.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert