Energy Analytics Energy Transition

Energy innovation | Where do we go from here?

byScott Wilmot

No single technology will be a “silver bullet” for meeting global carbon emissions targets — a diverse mix of technologies will be needed to achieve these ambitious goals. What will the future technology mix look like? That will depend on the pace of innovation and subsequent cost improvements for each respective technology. 

  • Capital cost trends for key technologies can be estimated using Wright’s Law, a framework for forecasting cost declines as a function of cumulative production. Figure 1, which has been converted to a logarithmic scale, shows the forecast learning curves for key energy technologies out to 2030. 
  • Innovation happens through trial and error, with increased growth leading to more opportunities for innovation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) and electric vehicles (EVs) have grown exponentially and have realized the greatest cost declines. With a bullish outlook on solar PV investment and global EV adoption, this trend is expected to continue. 
  • Green hydrogen production has seen significant cost declines as projects move from the pilot stage to commercialization. Installed costs for alkaline (ALK) and proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers should continue to decline, thanks to government policy incentivizing investment. Economies of scale are also expected to be realized as project capacities get larger over time. 
forecast-technology-learning-curves

Highlights from Energy Transition Research

  1. AAPG CCUS Conference Themes – Members from our Energy Transition Research (ETR) team attended and presented at the AAPG CCUS Conference in Houston in late April. Key themes centered around technical evaluation and reservoir modeling of carbon storage reservoirs and plume migration, as well as regulation and permitting of Class VI injection wells.
  2. EVOLVE 2023 – KEYNOTE: The Business of CCUS – Heather Leahey sits down with Basak Kurtoglu, Ash Shepherd and Frederick Eames to discuss the business of CCUS.
  3. EVOLVE 2023 – Emission Impossible: How Direct Emission Monitoring Will Impact Energy Operations – Industry and regulators both plan on reducing Scope 1 emissions across the oil and gas value chain, which is fairly straightforward with flaring and combustion, but requires more challenging measuring for venting. This presentation examines technologies that will help change that and make effective emission quantification and monitoring possible. We also look at the impact of upcoming regulations on the industry.

Energy is changing. Connect weekly with the ideas that are leading the way.

About Enverus Intelligence®| Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters. Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser. Click here to learn more.

Scott Wilmot

Scott Wilmot

Scott Wilmot is a finance professional with more than 10 years of experience in the global energy infrastructure sector. In various corporate development and business development roles, he has been involved with regulated utility, renewable power and thermal generation assets.

Subscribe to the Enverus Blog

A weekly update on the latest “no-fluff” insight and analysis of the energy industry.

Related Content

energy-transition
Energy Transition
ByCarson Kearl

In a world where energy value can make up a small portion of the revenue stream from emerging business models, what else is at play? Enverus Intelligence Research® views effective energy transition business as taking advantage of two key additive...

field-representative
Intelligence Oilfield Services
ByErin Faulkner

Permitting information for oil and gas wells is one of the most readily available and least lagged pieces of data on industry activity, but it is often seen as a poor indicator of future drilling activity.

Enverus Press Release - Exploring falling rigs and rising production
Energy Analytics Minerals
ByEnverus

While horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing significantly enhance well productivity, they have had the opposite effect on the land department.

operators
Intelligence
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

All seven regions covered by the Enverus Day Rate Survey saw rates rise sequentially for the second time in three months in January as confidence started to strengthen among U.S. land drilling contractors.

accurate-grid-forecastin
Energy Transition Intelligence
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

Ørsted took a blade to its project pipeline, reducing its ambition to 35-38 GW of installed capacity by 2030 from the previous 50 GW.

ofs-blog
Intelligence
ByJoseph Gyure, Editor, Enverus Intelligence

SLB has reaffirmed its 2024 financial guidance, part of an effort by international oilfield services companies to reassure investors after the Saudi Ministry of Energy called off plans to increase its maximum sustainable capacity by 1 MMbo/d to 13 MMbo/d...

EV-parent-image-4
Analyst Takes Energy Transition
ByEnverus

Despite the relatively scant incentives for buying an EV in the U.S. compared to other countries, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) presented its plan in 2023 to tighten tailpipe emissions regulations.

Enverus Blog - Increase visibility and efficiency with OpenTicket Mobile digital field ticketing software
Trading and Risk
ByEnverus

Amid significant volatility in global energy markets, U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to temporarily halt approvals for pending liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects seems to defy conventional trading wisdom. This audacious move has given rise to a variety of viewpoints...

Enverus Blog
Intelligence Trading and Risk
ByEnverus

In the ever-changing energy landscape, understanding market fluctuations, weather conditions and system resilience is paramount when factoring ideas for trading opportunities.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Let’s get started!

We’ll follow up right away to show you a quick product tour.

Sign up for our Blog

Register Today

Get Energy Transition Research updates straight to your inbox by filling out the form below.

Sign Up

Power Your Insights

Connect with an Expert

Access Product Tour

Speak to an Expert