PJM lowered its summer peak demand outlook to 160 GW from 164 GW, marking a meaningful shift from the more aggressive load trajectory it adopted in 2024. As outlined in our prior ISO benchmarking, Enverus Intelligence® Research’s (EIR) PJM load forecast has consistently trailed PJM’s projections after those upward revisions, which were driven by steep assumptions about data center expansion and implied growth rates far in excess of recent weather‑normalized history. At the time, PJM’s average and peak load projections exceeded even our extreme high case, placing it among the most bullish ISOs in our national comparison.
The latest downward revision reflects PJM’s tighter scrutiny of large‑load requests and updated economic inputs, signaling a partial rollback of those earlier assumptions. This recalibration brings PJM’s near-term outlook materially closer to where EIR had already landed. PJM now acknowledges that a portion of forecast load — particularly data centers — lacks firm construction timelines or executable interconnection commitments, prompting multigigawatt reductions to its 2027 and 2028 peak forecasts.
This outcome reinforces a central conclusion of our benchmarking analysis: ISO load outlooks that heavily weight speculative large‑load pipelines risk overstating near‑term demand growth. While PJM continues to project strong longer‑term increases in both peak load and annual energy, the near-term reset validates EIR’s consistent, driver-level methodology and underscores the importance of grounding demand forecasts in demonstrated execution rather than headline project announcements.
This blog offers just a glimpse of the powerful analysis Energy Transition Research delivers on the trending themes, don’t miss the full picture.
Research Highlights:
- The AI Power Premium – Google’s Strategic Bet on Intersect – Our valuation of Intersect Power’s portfolio differs from Alphabet’s (GOOGL) acquisition price, underscoring a gap with market expectations. The comparison also signals Big Tech’s appetite to acquire clean power portfolios to accelerate AI infrastructure development.
- Bloom Energy, AEP Ohio Deal – The High Cost of Waiting for AI Infrastructure – The AEP-Bloom Energy partnership is deploying 1 GW of on-site fuel cells through a $2.65 billion unregulated structure, bypassing traditional grid bottlenecks to deliver rapid power as a service for AI campuses while treating stack replacements as routine maintenance and shielding ratepayers from capital risk.
- Unpacking Power Generation Trends – VST Portfolio Deep Dive – We demonstrate how the new power generation table in Enverus PRISM® provides an overview of VST’s portfolio and its recent asset performance.
- Constellation Energy – At the Event Horizon – This report presents EIR’s bottom-up valuation of CEG’s generation portfolio and our view on the valuation of its equity.
DID YOU KNOW?
In North America, many electric clocks keep time by counting power grid frequency cycles. When the grid runs slightly off 60 Hz for extended periods, operators later correct the error by deliberately over- or under-generating electricity to keep the clocks accurate.
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macro-economic forecasts, and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
