Announced capacity gives ERCOT a striking demand forecast, but the grid tells a more specific story once projects begin operating. Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) has been tracking load changes against real-time system data, making it possible to compare what developers have announced with what sites are drawing today. In several cases, the gap is still wide, and each project is following its own ramp-up schedule.
The analysis uses ERCOT real-time security-constrained economic dispatch disclosure data to track changes associated with data center activity. It points to a market where large-load demand is real and growing, while new solar and battery capacity is arriving at a pace that has so far muted much of the near-term price impact.
Announced capacity and operating load tell different stories
The difference is especially clear in Abilene, where public announcements identify 1.2 GW of capacity associated with Crusoe and Oracle-OpenAI, plus a 0.9 GW expansion. EIR has observed a peak of 588 MW and a 30-day average of 491 MW. The ERCOT congestion revenue rights case models 1.2 GW at the site, so current observed demand remains below half of that modeled level.
A smaller gap appears at Core Scientific’s Denton site: 260 MW announced, a 173 MW peak and a 139 MW 30-day average. EIR rates the detection as moderate confidence because several nearby buses include CORE in their names, and the query may not capture every associated bus. The observed load still gives a useful view of the site’s current operating footprint.
The load profiles vary just as much as the announcements. Hornsby has reached a 245 MW peak and a 204 MW 30-day average, though EIR has not tied it to a publicly identified customer. Childress, meanwhile, is converting from cryptocurrency mining to data center operations. Its peak is 1,116 MW, while the 30-day average is 235 MW as the mining activity winds down. Project Merlin shows a different kind of signal: EIR sees the project in planning documents years before energization, with load expected in 2028.
The data points to other growth beyond the named sites. PEBSW in Ellis County added about 76 MW and QTSDAS about 53 MW; neither increase appears weather-related, and local bus data shows no offsetting decline. Both look like data center load, although EIR has not linked either to a specific project. At CMLCHENI, a separate 320 MW increase is almost certainly liquefied natural gas demand. Grid data can reveal these changes even when a project has not been publicly identified.
Selected ERCOT load growth indicators
| Project | Developer / customer | Announced | Peak to date | 30-day avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abilene | Crusoe / Oracle-OpenAI | 1.2 GW + 0.9 GW expansion | 588 MW | 491 MW |
| Childress (CHLDDATA) | Likely IREN | ~750 MW site | 1,116 MW | 235 MW |
| Core Scientific Denton | Core Scientific / CoreWeave | 260 MW | 173 MW | 139 MW |
| Hornsby 345 | Unattributed | — | 245 MW | 204 MW |
| Project Merlin | Galaxy | 74 MW phase 1 | — | — |
Announced figures and observed-load metrics are shown as reported by Enverus Intelligence® Research.
Solar and batteries are absorbing the near-term increase
While large loads have been ramping, batteries have also been arriving quickly. Through September, 4.6 GW of battery energy storage had reached commercial operation in 2026, compared with about 4 GW in the same period last year. Another 4.8 GW had been approved to synchronize. In the report’s accounting, the two figures total 9.4 GW for the year, just above the 9.3 GW recorded through September 2025.
Solar additions have been nearly as strong. Our datasets recorded 10.1 GW of new solar reaching the grid through September, close to the 10.3 GW logged over the same period in 2025. Of this year’s total, 4.7 GW had reached commercial operation and 5.3 GW had synchronized; the 0.1 GW difference comes from rounding.
EIR’s conclusion is that battery and renewable growth has effectively stymied net load growth so far, muting the price effect of rising gross demand. That helps explain why large loads can be ramping without a proportional increase in systemwide prices. The new supply is arriving alongside the demand, changing the near-term balance as each project comes online.
Figure 1 | Cumulative synchronization and commercial commissioning by fuel.
The supply response is expected to slow in 2027
That pace is expected to ease. EIR identifies about 5.6 GW of solar under construction with in-service dates before October 31, 2027. Including projects carrying December 31 placeholder dates brings the 2027 total closer to 7 GW, although delays could pull it back toward 5 GW. Even the higher estimate would mark a slowdown from 2025 and 2026.
Battery completions are forecast at 2.4 GW to 3.0 GW for the year. EIR sees reason to watch the lower end of that range: Clear Fork Creek appears in the project list as a 600 MW, one-hour battery co-located with solar and contracted with Meta, a combination that raises questions about how the project has been categorized.
The storage mix is changing too. Batteries in the 2020 commercial-operation vintage had a capacity-weighted duration of about 1.2 hours; the 2026 class has a two-hour median duration year to date. Longer-duration systems may be better positioned to capture revenue from duration-limited ancillary services and offer operators more flexibility across the day.
Gas offers little additional capacity in the near term. The construction list includes two 440 MW Vast Sands units, though EIR expects them in 2028 despite the 2027 dates shown in the table. Forward prices do not support much new merchant gas generation, so EIR expects limited additions unless they are associated with data center projects.
What to watch next
For ERCOT, the next question is how quickly announced projects move from initial energization to sustained use. Abilene, Denton, Childress and the still-unattributed Hornsby load each show a different operating path. Tracking real-time consumption alongside announcements gives a more current picture of how much demand is actually on the system.
On the supply side, solar and battery additions have kept pace with gross load growth through September, with both expected to slow in 2027. Project size and operating characteristics matter alongside capacity: larger solar farms concentrate generation at specific grid points, while longer-duration batteries can respond across more hours. Those details will help determine how much of the new capacity is available when and where demand rises.
Figure 2 | Solar project size trends by first-power year.
Explore the report for full project tables and a station-level view of average-demand changes.
About Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR)
Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations, and macroeconomic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies, and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
