Jupiter in Retrograde | Oracle Hedges on Bloom’s Biggest Order

Last week, Oracle issued a force majeure notice to STACK Infrastructure, the Blue Owl Capital-owned developer of Project Jupiter, the Stargate data center campus in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The notice preserves Oracle’s ability to seek delayed payments if the campus misses its targeted 2028 opening, although it is unclear whether the company could be released from its agreed obligations. Oracle says Project Jupiter “remains on our planned schedule” and that such notices do not by themselves indicate a delay. Still, Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) views the notice as a clear sign that Oracle sees material schedule risk.

That risk is not new. The project still lacks an air permit for its fuel-cell microgrid, and New Mexico twice blocked Energy Transfer’s Green Chile gas pipeline from crossing state trust land, pushing its targeted in-service date from August to February 2027. The New Mexico Supreme Court temporarily paused the air- and water-permitting proceedings before lifting the stays on Sept. 17. Lenders have also taken note, with the project’s $18 billion in loans quoted at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar.

Oracle’s contract with Bloom Energy (BE) covers about 2.4 GW of fuel cells for the site and, including a $1.2 billion expansion option, represents nearly half of BE’s estimated product backlog. EIR still expects Project Jupiter to be built. Oracle is not walking away; the project partners say their financial commitments remain unchanged, and the compute demand underpinning Stargate is real.

But the notice is Oracle’s own acknowledgment that the 2028 target faces risk, and every month of delay could push BE’s deliveries and revenue further out. In July, we called the pipeline denial Bloom’s first crack. This is the second, and with so much of its estimated backlog tied to one site, BE has little room for error.

Research Highlights:

• Network Upgrade Costs and Solar PV – LCOE Zonal Exposure and Sensitivity – Enverus Intelligence® Research identifies the independent system operator zones with the lowest solar PV network upgrade costs (NUCs). It also examines how NUC outcomes affect the levelized cost of energy and compares solar economics without the investment tax credit with recent power purchase agreement benchmarks.
• 3Q26 Long-Term Capacity Expansion – The Reliability-Led Power Buildout – Enverus Intelligence® Research projects a storage-led buildout of the Lower 48 power supply through 2050, with 1,080 GW of new capacity lifting installed capacity from 1,435 GW to 2,284 GW. Battery storage, solar and natural gas lead additions, but the path diverges sharply by region as some markets scale renewables while others lean on gas and nuclear. Falling geothermal and nuclear costs and rising gas capex reshape where each technology wins.
• ERCOT Batch Zero – Who Gets Energized, Who Waits? – ERCOT’s Batch Zero classification gives large-load developers a sense of their path to energization, but certainty remains limited. We find that only 8.8 GW of the 191.8 GW classified is associated with published near-term Quarterly Stability Assessment deadlines, while the largest and least visible projects face additional study and transmission uncertainty.

Top Three Takeaways:

1: What does Oracle’s force majeure notice mean for Project Jupiter?

Oracle’s force majeure notice is a legal safeguard that allows the company to delay payments if Project Jupiter misses its 2028 opening target. While Oracle maintains the project is on schedule, EIR views the notice as a clear signal the company sees material schedule risk ahead. The notice does not necessarily indicate an imminent delay, but it reflects Oracle’s concern about permitting and infrastructure challenges that could push the timeline.

2: How dependent is Bloom Energy on Project Jupiter?

Bloom Energy’s 2.4 GW fuel cell contract for Project Jupiter represents nearly half of the company’s estimated product backlog, making it a critical revenue stream. The contract includes a $1.2 billion expansion option, further cementing the site’s importance to the company’s future deliveries and financial performance. With so much of its backlog concentrated at a single location, Bloom Energy has limited flexibility if schedule delays push fuel cell deliveries
further out.

3: What are the primary schedule risks facing Project Jupiter?

The project faces multiple permitting and infrastructure hurdles: it still lacks an air permit for its fuel-cell microgrid, and New Mexico’s twice-blocked Energy Transfer pipeline has pushed its in-service target from August to February 2027. Lender concerns are mounting, with project loans quoted at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar, signaling diminished confidence in timely completion. Every month of delay ripples through Oracle’s procurement and Bloom Energy’s delivery timeline.