Our SPP system‑wide load forecasting continues to deliver exceptional accuracy and consistency, reflecting the overall high performance of our forecasting portfolio. Enverus provides 15‑day‑ahead hourly forecasts for both SPP system demand and the individual balancing authorities across SPP, supporting reliable planning and operational confidence throughout the region.
This February, system‑wide demand in SPP was lower than in January as the impacts of Winter Storm Fern dissipated. However, colder days still increased the demand for several days. On Monday, February 23rd, system demand reached its highest level of the month at 39,918 MW, in a very clear morning peak. Our three‑day‑ahead forecast had already anticipated this behavior, correctly predicting a morning peak as early as the prior Friday.
| Date | 1-day ahead forecast MAPE | 2-days ahead forecast MAPE | 3-days ahead forecast MAPE | |||
| ENVERUS | ISO | ENVERUS | ISO | ENVERUS | ISO | |
| February 23rd, 2026 | 0.56 % | 3.35% | 0.78 % | 3.14 % | 3.33 % | 4.65 % |
As expected, accuracy improves as we move closer to real time, demonstrating consistent model performance across time horizons. It is particularly notable how much better our day ahead load forecast performed compared to the ISO’s on February 23rd:
- Enverus daily MAPE: 0.56%
- ISO daily MAPE: 3.35%
Our day‑ahead load forecast outperforming the ISO’s is not a winter‑specific pattern since it holds across all seasons. Demand in SPP typically peaks higher during the summer, when load shapes show a gradual morning ramp, a dominant late‑afternoon peak, and a slow decline in the evening. During the winter, load shape is different: ramps are sharper (especially in the morning) and demand shows two distinct peaks, one in the morning and one in the evening. Spring and fall show the expected “shoulder season” behavior: lower demand overall, flatter profiles, and less pronounced peaks.
Table 2 presents both monthly all day MAPE and monthly On‑Peak MAPE of our forecast versus the ISO’s. Enverus consistently outperforms the ISO every month, including spring and fall seasons when load forecasting is traditionally more challenging. Another important trend is clear: since mid‑2025, the ISO’s forecasting error has steadily increased, while our error profile shows a completely different pattern, remaining stable and increasing only slightly this January.
| Month | 1-day ahead forecast MAPE All hours | 1-day ahead forecast MAPE On-Peak period | ||
| ENVERUS | ISO | ENVERUS | ISO | |
| 2025-01 | 1.54 % | 2.16 % | 1.54 % | 2.30 % |
| 2025-02 | 2.29 % | 2.45 % | 2.49 % | 2.70 % |
| 2025-03 | 1.48 % | 2.28 % | 1.55 % | 2.14 % |
| 2025-04 | 1.60 % | 2.29 % | 1.72 % | 2.17 % |
| 2025-05 | 1.65 % | 2.17 % | 1.87 % | 2.06 % |
| 2025-06 | 2.03 % | 2.32 % | 2.20 % | 2.30 % |
| 2025-07 | 1.71 % | 1.96 % | 1.80 % | 2.02 % |
| 2025-08 | 1.48 % | 1.83 % | 1.60 % | 1.76 % |
| 2025-09 | 1.33 % | 2.20 % | 1.46 % | 1.97 % |
| 2025-10 | 1.16 % | 2.37 % | 1.29 % | 2.28 % |
| 2025-11 | 1.39 % | 2.19 % | 1.37 % | 2.14 % |
| 2025-12 | 1.58 % | 2.68 % | 1.60 % | 2.71 % |
| 2026-01 | 2.33% | 2.59 % | 2.41 % | 2.57 % |
| 2026-02 | 1.54 % | 3.62 % | 1.66 % | 3.66 % |
This consistent performance demonstrates the reliability of our day‑ahead load forecast and reinforces its value to Enverus customers.
