Get insights into 2026 interconnection queue, ISO dynamics, utility strategies, and energy policies shaping project development and grid access.
Research written by:
Enverus Intelligence Team
Investment advisory products and services provided by Enverus Intelligence® Research, Inc. Visit www.Enverus.com/disclosures for additional information.
Reviewed by:
Ryan Luther, Research Director, Enverus Intelligence® Research
To take advantage of federal tax credits, developers are accelerating solar deployments across all ISOs, while reliability driven market signals simultaneously drive gas and battery development.
Figure 1 | Queued Capacity and Status
Source | Enverus Power & Renewables, Project Tracking Analytics
Expiring federal tax incentives, queue backlogs, and new reliability-focused policies accelerate solar and storage development in the short run while constraining longer-term renewable growth. Across ISOs, only a fraction of the hundreds of gigawatts targeting 2026 are likely to reach operation, with faster-moving regions like ERCOT contrasted by slower, transmission‑constrained markets. We will see gas and batteries gaining strategic importance as grid reliability and large-load growth take center stage; however, supply chains and interconnection timelines will constrain how much front-of-the-meter gas generation can be added.
The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in July of 2025 triggered the phase-out of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credits. While the IRA originally provided a long runway for renewables, the OBBBA requires wind and solar projects to be placed in service by December 31, 2027, to remain eligible for the PTC and ITC tax credits. Projects failing to demonstrate they have begun construction, using the physical work test or the 5% safe harbor, by July 4, 2026, or the 2027 service deadline will lose access to these federal incentives. ITC remains available for grid-scale batteries through 2036.
OBBBA is expected to have a two-phase impact on renewable development. In the near term, solar development is likely to accelerate as projects rush to meet safe harbor requirements; solar is projected to lead 2026 capacity additions and project counts across most U.S. regions (Figure 1). Over the longer term, however, renewable development is expected to decline more significantly as federal incentives diminish. In markets with Renewable Portfolio Standards, or in energy-constrained areas, these dynamics are likely to result in higher Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices and an increase in renewable projects paired with energy storage.
To see how OBBBA shifts are impacting project valuations and queue survival rates, you can explore detailed economic modeling and regional viability analysis in the reports linked below:
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