Transmission Troubles | Infrastructure Lags Demand Growth

Enverus Intelligence^® Research (EIR) and many others have published at length on the coming wave of load growth that starkly contrasts more than a decade of stagnation. What is discussed less is how challenging system upgrades and expansions have become in recent years (Figure 1). To identify two markets that stand out, we expect transmission systems will need to grow 14% and 10% in ERCOT and WECC respectively, representing hundreds of miles of system expansions each year over the next five years. What happens if these infrastructure projects fail to materialize? One vein of solutions gaining more attention is temporary quick-install power systems like those developed by VoltaGrid, Life Cycle Power, Solaris Electric and others. Data center developers, the largest force behind load growth are turning to quick-fix solutions for essential projects, like xAI with its Memphis Colossus artificial intelligence supercomputer facility.

While many large loads face multiyear wait times and development hurdles in the queue, well-capitalized firms that are willing to push the envelope may be able to find a haven in regulated markets where conditions are ideal. At its Memphis site, xAI utilized the infrastructure from an old electronics manufacturing facility with existing grid connections and proximity to both power and natural gas. Working with a utility and midstream partner, it was able to set up a facility with nearly 100 MW of power in less than three months. EIR thinks more opportunities like this are available and regulated markets could provide a refuge from lengthy interconnection queues.

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Enverus Intelligence® Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.