SPP Summer 2024 Outlook
Welcome to our summer outlook for Southwest Power Pool (SPP) for the summer of 2024. We’ll be looking at insights into weather forecasts, load predictions, renewable energy expectations, transmission updates and potential congestion issues and break down the information by month to give you a clear picture of what to expect. Let’s get into it.
June 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- The summer was predicted to start off relatively cool due to La Niña conditions. Soil moisture is high, especially in the northeastern regions, contributing to cooler temperatures.
- Expect lower load periods at the beginning of the month due to the cooler weather.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Wind generation is expected to be near to below average SPP.
Price and Congestion:
- Lower load and wind generation could lead to lower prices.
- Congestion risks include Wichita Transformer as well as the Gordon Evans Energy Center, driven by demand.
July 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- A warming trend is expected in July, with average temperatures predicted to rise from June.
- Load is expected to be average with warm weather expected and high CDDs.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Windy conditions are anticipated, which could lead to increased wind generation and affect market prices.
Price and Congestion:
- Prices may be lower than expected due to overestimating bullish components.
- Key congestion points could possibly involve Leland Olds Transformer.
August 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- August poses the highest risk for hotter than expected weather. If tropical activity is lower than predicted, temperatures could rise significantly.
- Load is expected to peak with the higher temperatures.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Wind generation might decrease slightly, but the overall renewable contribution remains significant.
Price and Congestion:
- This month could see higher prices if the weather turns hotter than forecasted and wind generation drops, being the most bullish month for SPP.
- Watch for congestion around Forman Transformer due to wind imbalances.
NYISO Summer 2024 Outlook
Introduction
Dive into our summer 2024 outlook for NYISO. We’ll quickly review expected weather patterns, load projections, renewable energy performance and transmission issues to equip you with the insights needed to navigate the NYISO market this summer.
June 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- June is expected to be cooler than average due to the lingering effects of La Niña, with high soil moisture levels contributing to lower temperatures.
- Load is anticipated to be lower than normal for the month due to the cooler weather.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Renewable generation, particularly wind, is expected to be strong, which could lower market prices.
Price and Congestion:
- June is expected to have slightly above market prices.
- Congestion risks include Zone J due to stack inflexibility.
July 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- July is predicted to see temperatures rise to above-average levels, leading to higher electricity demand.
- Increased load is expected as temperatures rise, particularly in the urban areas.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Lower than average wind and generation will continue to play a significant role in the market.
Price and Congestion:
- Prices may increase due to higher demand from elevated temperatures.
- Key congestion points will likely include Zone J instead of Central East-VC.
August 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- August is projected to also see above average temperatures, leading to higher demand.
- Increased load is expected as temperatures rise particularly during heatwaves.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Renewable generation may be slightly lower due to decreased wind generation.
Price and Congestion:
- Higher prices are likely if temperatures soar and renewable generation drops.
- Sustained heat could indicate sustained high pricing.
ISO-NE Summer 2024 Outlook
Moving on to our summer 2024 outlook for ISO New England. This blog will provide insights into weather forecasts, load predictions, renewable energy expectations, transmission updates and potential congestion issues, broken down by month to understand and prepare for the market conditions in ISO New England this summer.
June 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- June is expected to be cooler than average, with high soil moisture levels contributing to the lower temperatures.
- Load is anticipated to be average due to the cooler weather conditions.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Wind generation is expected to be higher than average.
Price and Congestion:
- Lower demand and higher renewable generation could keep prices relatively low.
July 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- July is predicted to warm up significantly, with temperatures rising above average, leading to higher electricity demand.
- Increased load is expected with the rising temperatures, especially due to seeing heatwaves in analog years.
Renewable Energy:
- Wind generation will continue to lower than average in July.
Price and Congestion:
- Prices may rise due to higher demand from increased temperatures.
August 2024
Weather and Load Forecast:
- August is projected to be the hottest month, with temperatures being sustained rather than transient.
- Peak load is expected during heatwaves, with significant electricity demand in urban areas.
Renewable Energy and Transmission:
- Renewable generation may decline slightly due to decreased wind
Price and Congestion:
- Higher prices are likely if temperatures rise and renewable generation decreases.
SPP, NYISO, and ISONE summer outlooks indicate a dynamic season for weather patterns and renewable energy generation that will impact market conditions. Want to watch the full outlook for more details? Check out the replay of our webinar here: Summer 2024 Power Markets Outlook: SPP, NYISO, ISONE | Enverus
