The surge in electricity usage fueled by the need for data centers might not be as substantial as originally thought. When examining the log-log relationship between annual information consumption (measured in exabytes) and data-center power efficiency (expressed in exabytes per terawatt-hour), we observe that projecting efficiency gains into our model shows virtually no deviation from the historical trend (with an R-squared value of 0.99) from 2000-23 (Figure 1).
Despite our significant efforts to model these future efficiency gains, the results align with the principle of Jevons Paradox. This paradox suggests that improvements in computing efficiency lead to proportional increases in demand for computing resources, ultimately balancing out the gains. The increase in computation from 2010-19 was almost entirely facilitated by efficiency gains, with power consumption by U.S. data centers only growing from 74 TWh to 80 TWh. Please contact intelligence@enverus.com if you have any issues accessing links or if you would like to learn more about Enverus products and services.
Highlights From Energy Transition Research
Data Center Demand | Quantifying Exponential Levers – Enverus Intelligence Research’s updated view on data center load and the technology enabling exponential computing growth. Our analysis breaks down often ignored components of computational energy use and quantitively describes a future where exponential growth in computing doesn’t require the same trend in energy consumption.
Power and ET M&A Review – Load Growth Sparks Demand for Power Deals – This energy transition quarterly M&A review utilizes our Energy Transition M&A platform, which has captured more than 7,000 deals across 100 countries spanning power (generation, distribution, storage and integrated assets) plus alternative fuels, CCUS, equipment manufacturing, electric vehicles and mining of energy transition metals.
Power Plant CCUS a Pipe Dream | EPA Thermal Generation Ruling – This report analyzes the potential impact of the EPA’s greenhouse gas standards and guidelines for fossil-fueled power plants in the U.S. The new regulations will impact new natural gas plants, operating coal plants and the generation mix for specific markets and states.
