Blackstone announced last week it will invest about $1.2 billion to build the Wolf Summit Energy Project in West Virginia as forecast load growth in the region continues to drive demand for baseload generation. In contrast to earlier announcements of data centers partnering with generators, this plant will instead sell power to a utility: Old Dominion Electric Cooperative. The 600 MW combined-cycle natural gas plant will be supplied by GE Vernova gas turbines.
Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR) analysis shows that in PJM, tightening supply-demand dynamics are driving market-implied heat rates up 30% in some zones (Figure 1). This comes as the cost of gas-fired generation has tripled, according to NextEra Energy. Developers racing to capitalize on load growth have led to supply chain bottlenecks for gas-fired generation, creating an inflated M&A market and unviable economics for new builds at $2.5 million/MW. Wolf Summit Energy will cost $2 million/MW, pricing it at a relative discount to reported costs this year.
Blackstone emerges from a tight gas-build market with a competitively priced project in a region poised for robust load growth — and in doing so underscores a continued emphasis on thermal baseload assets in the Northeast.
DISCLOSURE
Private equity funds affiliated with Blackstone have entered into a definitive agreement to indirectly acquire Enverus, Inc., the parent company of EIR.
Research Highlights:
- Geothermal Acreage | Hot Rocks and High Bids – EIR analyses the surge in geothermal leasing in the western U.S. where bids have risen tenfold since 2023.
- CCUS Activity Map – This map builds on the release of CCUS Fundamentals, showcasing integrated datasets that connect the full carbon capture value chain.
- Long-Term Capacity Expansion | The Three Eras of Capacity Growth – Our capacity expansion model for the Lower 48, based on forecast load, risked interconnection queues and technology cost curves.
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Enverus Intelligence® | Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evalutions and macro-economic forecasts, and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. See additional disclosures here.
