Summer 2026 Power Market Outlook

This report presents Enverus Power Analytics’ summer 2026 outlook for North American wholesale electricity markets — covering ERCOT, SPP, PJM, MISO, CAISO, Mid-C, NYISO, and ISO-NE. It examines weather drivers, supply stack evolution, transmission changes, new builds, and price and heat rate forecasts for June through August 2026.

The analytical foundation for all regional forecasts is Enverus’s ENSO analog year methodology: identifying historical years with similar Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) patterns and using them as the basis for temperature, wind, and load projections. For 2026, the primary analog years are 2018 and 2023 across all markets, with the team increasingly weighting 2023 as models trend toward a stronger-than-expected El Niño.

This report is intended for traders, resource planners, utility operations teams, renewable developers, and power market analysts who need a rapid, expert-level orientation to summer 2026 risk across all ISOs. All price and heat rate forecasts are based on Enverus Power Analytics’ proprietary stack modeling and should be verified against current market data before use in trading decisions.