The ERCOT Coincident Peak (CP) for August occurred during Hour Ending 18 on August 24. Enverus accurately identified the peak day one day in advance and the exact peak hour on the morning of August 24, giving customers valuable time to prepare and respond.
Early to mid-August, following a warm and very dry pattern across Texas, Enverus identified several potential CP risk days and issued a few alerts. However, during the final third of the month, a strong heat wave increased the likelihood of a peak event, prompting additional CP call-outs. Ultimately, these alerts successfully identified the peak day and peak hour on August 24.
In total, Enverus issued:
- 13 CP-day related calls throughout August
- Covering 17 high-demand hours
This means CP alerts were issued for 41.94% of the days and just 2.28% of the total hours in August. On August 24, the Enverus day-ahead load forecast achieved a daily MAPE of 0.48%, compared to 0.88% for the ERCOT day-ahead load forecast. This result further validates the accuracy of our CP call issued the previous day. These results highlight the precision, responsiveness, and adaptability of Enverus forecasting tools during critical peak demand events.
