CALGARY, Alberta (June 9, 2026) — Enverus Intelligence® Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, the leading energy data analytics platform, has published its latest Fundamental Edge report, Let’s Make a Deal | Brent Upgrade, Henry Downgrade, examining how shifting geopolitics and supply-demand dynamics are reshaping oil and gas price expectations.
In the report, EIR raised its 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl (from $95/bbl), based on a scenario in which a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached by end of June, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to begin reopening shortly thereafter. The analysis notes the initial market reaction to a deal announcement could be bearish but maintains that underlying support comes from inventories that remain well below prewar levels.
The updated outlook assumes a more conservative ramp-up of flows through the strait that extends into 1Q27, with throughput modeled to recover from roughly ~2 MMbbl/d today and rise steadily to 16 MMbbl/d by 2027—still below the 20 MMbbl/d prewar level. Against this backdrop, cumulative stock draws are expected to keep OECD inventories near ~2.3 Bbbl through 2H26, a level the report’s stocks-to-price relationship implies is consistent with ~$110/bbl Brent, alongside modeled ~500 Mbbl/d Y/Y demand loss in 2026 from sustained price elevation.
For 2027, EIR’s forecast calls for Brent to average $105/bbl, reflecting gradual normalization of flows but continued support from low stocks. The report also points to a firmer—though still constrained—U.S. supply response, lifting expectations for Lower 48 oil growth to ~300 Mbbl/d by exit-2026 and ~500 Mbbl/d by exit-2027, with the Permian Basin driving growth and infrastructure bottlenecks remaining a key limiter.
“Even with a path toward reopening, the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t snap back overnight and the market doesn’t get its inventory cushion back quickly either. Our update is a ‘higher-for-longer’ call: the headline may move first, but low stocks and a gradual normalization keep Brent supported well into 2027,” said Al Salazar, report author and director at EIR.
Key takeaways:
- The latest report raises the 2H26 Brent forecast to $110/bbl (from $95/bbl) on a base case that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached by end of June and the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening, with the ramp-up extending into 1Q27.
- The outlook models Hormuz throughput recovering from ~2 MMbbl/d today and ramping to 16 MMbbl/d by 2027, below the 20 MMbbl/d prewar level, with some rerouted flows expected to become permanent.
- For 2027, the forecast calls for Brent to average $105/bbl, supported by inventories that remain well below prewar levels and ongoing strategic reserve refill demand referenced in the long-term framing.
- The report lifts U.S. supply expectations to ~300 Mbbl/d exit-2026 and ~500 Mbbl/d exit-2027 Lower 48 oil growth, driven by stronger activity and a higher Brent deck, with the Permian as the primary contributor.
- On U.S. natural gas, the analysis maintains a $3.00/MMBtu Henry Hub forecast for summer 2026 and lowers the 2027 forecast to $3.50/MMBtu (from $3.75/MMBtu), citing increased associated gas supply tied to higher oil prices and a warmer El Niño setup for winter 2026-27.
EIR’s analysis pulls from a variety of products including Enverus ONE.
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About Enverus Intelligence® Research
Enverus Intelligence ® | Research, Inc. (EIR) is a subsidiary of Enverus that publishes energy-sector research focused on the oil, natural gas, power and renewable industries. EIR publishes reports including asset and company valuations, resource assessments, technical evaluations and macro-economic forecasts; and helps make intelligent connections for energy industry participants, service companies and capital providers worldwide. Enverus is the most trusted, energy-dedicated SaaS company, with a platform built to create value from generative AI, offering real-time access to analytics, insights and benchmark cost and revenue data sourced from our partnerships to 95% of U.S. energy producers, and more than 40,000 suppliers. Learn more at Enverus.com.
