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Strong Gas Price Volatility Following Holiday Week and Weather Forecasts


Natural gas storage inventories decreased by 33 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 24, per EIA. The Jan18 futures contract is trading down this morning, $0.10 to $3.073 per MMBtu, at time of writing. Gas prices opened higher on Monday and continued gaining on Tuesday, but it’s back to losses over the past two days although remains above $3 per MMBtu.

Working gas storage inventories decreased to 3.693 Tcf, level 309 Bcf below last year and also below the 5-year average by 107 Bcf.

See chart below for projections of end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1, the end of the withdrawal season.


This Week In Fundamentals

The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending 11/30.

  • Supply: dry gas production is up 620 MMcf/d week-on-week led by gains in the Northeast. US production set a record high level on Nov 27th at 76.9 Bcf/d. Canadian imports decreased this week by 210 MMcf/d.
  • Demand: the holiday week and warmer temperatures pushed residential/commercial demand down by 3.3 Bcf/d. Power demand increased by 0.3 Bcf/d, but those gains were offset by declines in industrial. LNG and Mexico exports were basically flat week-on-week.
  • Total supply is up 0.4 Bcf/d, while total demand went down by 3.7 Bcf/d. Market is longer this week, therefore expect a smaller draw and even possible to have a small injection in next week’s storage report.
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