Storage Inventories Fall Below the 5-Year Average


Natural gas storage inventories increased by 42 Bcf for the week ended Sept. 29, per EIA. The report was in line with most market expectations of an injection in the low 40s.

Working gas storage inventories increased to 3.508 Tcf, level 161 Bcf below last year. For the first time during this injection season, inventories fell below the 5-year average following today’s injection by 8 Bcf.

The prompt month contract, Nov17 continues trading range bound this week and currently up $0.02 to $2.96 per MMBtu, at time of writing.

See Drillinginfo EIA’s chart below. This graphic shows projections for end-of-season inventories as of Nov 1. With only four weeks left of the traditional injection season, inventory projections are only 30 Bcf apart between 3.82 Tcf and 3.79 Tcf.

Storage Inventories Fall Below the 5-Year Average

This Week In Fundamentals
The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending 10/05.

• Supply: dry gas production is down again this week by almost 500 MMcf/d to 73.7 Bcf/d after peaking at 74.8 Bcf/d on Sept 20th. The Northeast is responsible for most of the declines this week as demand decreased significantly in the region. Canadian imports are up 100 MMcf/d. Total supply is down 0.4 Bcf/d.

• Demand: total demand had a large decline this week due to fall-like temperatures. Losses were led by the power sector which decreased by 6.4 Bcf/d. Res/com demand is also down this week for total demand losses of 7.8 Bcf/d

• Total supply is down 0.4 Bcf/d while total demand is down 7.8 Bcf/d. Market switched to being long this week. A storage injection in the 90s Bcf is expected in next week’s EIA release.

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