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Small Gas Storage Build Likely the Last Injection of the Season


Natural gas storage inventories increased by 15 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 3, per EIA. The 15 Bcf compares to a 54 Bcf injection reported last year and the five-year average of 45 Bcf. The Dec17 futures contract has been posting gains this week on cold weather forecasts and currently trading flat at $3.184 per MMBtu, at time of writing.

Working gas storage inventories increased to 3.790 Tcf, level 219 Bcf below last year and also below the 5-year average by 71 Bcf.

See chart below for projections of end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1 or the end of the withdrawal season.

This Week In Fundamentals
The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending 11/09.

• Supply: natural gas dry production is up this week 529 MMcf/d led by Northeast production gains as the long-waited pipeline takeaway capacity has started to become available for northeast producers. Canadian imports are also up 120 MMcf/d.

• Demand: all demand sectors reported gains this week including a 3.15 Bcf/d increase in res/com and 1.7 Bcf/d in power demand. LNG exports are up 300 MMcf/d as maintenance was completed while Mexican exports posted a record weekly average high at 4.43 Bcf/d, up 200 MMcf/d from last week.

• Total supply increased by 0.7 Bcf/d to 81.7 Bcf/d. Total demand is up 5.3 Bcf/d to 83.34 Bcf/d. Demand is higher than supply, therefore the first withdrawal of the season is likely to be reported in next week’s EIA storage release.

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