Natural gas storage inventories increased by 15 Bcf for the week ended Nov. 3, per EIA. The 15 Bcf compares to a 54 Bcf injection reported last year and the five-year average of 45 Bcf. The Dec17 futures contract has been posting gains this week on cold weather forecasts and currently trading flat at $3.184 per MMBtu, at time of writing.
Working gas storage inventories increased to 3.790 Tcf, level 219 Bcf below last year and also below the 5-year average by 71 Bcf.
See chart below for projections of end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1 or the end of the withdrawal season.
This Week In Fundamentals
The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending 11/09.
• Supply: natural gas dry production is up this week 529 MMcf/d led by Northeast production gains as the long-waited pipeline takeaway capacity has started to become available for northeast producers. Canadian imports are also up 120 MMcf/d.
• Demand: all demand sectors reported gains this week including a 3.15 Bcf/d increase in res/com and 1.7 Bcf/d in power demand. LNG exports are up 300 MMcf/d as maintenance was completed while Mexican exports posted a record weekly average high at 4.43 Bcf/d, up 200 MMcf/d from last week.
• Total supply increased by 0.7 Bcf/d to 81.7 Bcf/d. Total demand is up 5.3 Bcf/d to 83.34 Bcf/d. Demand is higher than supply, therefore the first withdrawal of the season is likely to be reported in next week’s EIA storage release.
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