I have a problem with an October Arthur Berman presentation I read recently, it is here https://www.oilandgaslawyerblog.com/Arthur%20Berman%20on%20Marcellus.pdf. I am not going to spend much time right now debating this, disclosing internal number crunching, etc. I do however feel the need to say a few things regarding one of the slides which pertains to this blog in particular.
We all know that Berman is a firm non-believer in unconventional shale gas plays. Fine, not new news. What is news to me is that he now is going after unconventional liquids rich plays saying things like “the move to liquid-rich shale plays has resulted in poor results so far.” And there is this slide I have posted below saying very clearly that the Eagle Ford liquid rich play will be vastly non-commercial.
This slide shows EUR projections of 53 Eagle Ford oil wells. Where does this data come from is my first and most pressing question. It had better not come from the RRC. I have studied RRC Eagle Ford oil data more than 99.9% of people, and I find it literally impossible to make EUR projections accurately enough to make statements like the one in this slide. Let me show an example.
This is the EOG Milton Lease located in Karnes County. This production has 6 wells tied to it, it is reported on the lease level, and the 6 wells have come on and off at various points. This lease has the most data since it is the oldest therefore should be the most reliable, you tell me how to make a reliable EUR projection off of this, I’m all ears.
Here is another one. This is the Harper Unit, also located in Karnes County.
Again, please enlighten me, I am very open to new ideas trust me.
Eagle Ford oil data is too sparse and unreliable to make projections, much less make blanket statements like fewer than 20% of wells will be commercial. That is foolish in my opinion. If you want to discuss fluid flow through permeable media or capillary pressures, or some kind of science to make this point, that would make a lot more sense to me than these projections. I am not familiar with Labyrinth Consulting Services, but I highly doubt they have accurate pressure data, saturations, well test data, from these companies.
I have been on record as saying that we do not know yet how the Eagle Ford oil window will turn out, but the early results I believe are positive when taking into account all considerations. Will they be 500 MBoe EURs? Probably not, but we simply do not know, period.
And the Sugarkane Corridor, Hawkville, these fields have some SERIOUSLY liquids-rich wells with some decent production history but they are conveniently over looked here, I guess they don’t jive with the premise…
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