Its difficult to look at an all-in Haynesville type curve and make conclusions about specific areas. A sweet spot in the play may be 10 miles from a borderline economic area which may be 10 miles from an uneconomic area. With that in mind i decided it would be interesting to do a small study on how type curves vary as you travel across the Louisiana portion of the Haynesville.
This discussion is meant to examine how production and type curves vary by location, therefore I will not include operator. I understand the potential pitfalls of not including operator but that will be for another day. First lets identify the top ten most active fields. Below is a map of the Haynesville Louisiana producers colored by field and bubbled by Prac Gas IP (drillinginfo lingo for 2nd month production). We can refer back to this map to get an idea of where these fields lie as we progress through this analysis. You can see straight away that Caspiana has the most producers with 70 and relative to the other fields it spans more acreage.
Here is an HPDI generated daily average production chart showing these top producing Haynesville fields. Caspiana as expected has by far the most production, 340,000 Mcf/d, as it also has the most wells. Following Caspiana is Red River-Bull Bayou at 220,000 Mcf/d, ~65% of Caspiana production.
Now that we’ve identified our fields, lets look at how their Type Curves compare with one another. The chart is fairly messy, but it shows convincingly the variation in the performance of wells in one area vs. another.
We are convinced that Peak Gas is a strong indicator of EUR, however, it does not tell the whole story. I’d like to take this a few steps further and see how the decline and short term gas cums compare on the field level. Below is a chart, generated from the respective type curves, of 3, 6, 9 and 12 month gas cums for each field. There are some interesting take aways from this chart. Logansport has the lowest cums (about .75 Bcf after one year) and it had the lowest peak gas. There are some winners here too. Thorn Lake, Holly, Elm Grove and RR-BB perform nicely with 9-month gas cums of around 2 Bcf and greater. The all-in 12-month cum hits about 1.6 Bcf.
Here finally we have short term decline rates, also generated from the type curves. I realize these are difficult to pinpoint with sample sizes ranging from about 15 wells up to 332 for the all-in, but nonetheless it is still interesting and offers some take aways. One thing to note is that the All-in declines more closely mirror the various fields than peak gas or cums.
So what conclusions can we garner? Well, as nice as an All-in Type curve is, it does not represent the Haynesville shale on a more micro level. Certain areas like Thorn Lake, Holly and Elm Grove to the East appear to be premium when compared to Logansport to the South. I think it is also interesting that the All-in short term declines closely mirror the field level declines. It would be interesting to study how declines rates vary as you traverse the Barnett and Fayetteville and see if you can gain some insights into some of these less mature shales like the Haynesville and Eagle Ford.
All in all I found this to be interesting. Obviously there are many variables at work here like operator skill, technology, size of data sets but we have to work with what we’ve got. If anyone has any comments or suggestions post them. As well, we at Drillinginfo Energy Strategy Partners are finishing up the Haynesville and Eagle Ford portions of the Unconvential Platforms due out in May 2010. We will be hosting a FREE webinar April 28th to showcase some of the features available with this product. If interested check out this link.
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