Natural gas storage inventories decreased by 194 Bcf for the week ending Feb. 9, according to the EIA’s weekly report. The draw was slightly above market expectations. Natural gas prices are up $0.01 from yesterday’s close, with the March contract trading at $2.60 per MMBtu at the time of writing.
Today’s storage withdrawal parallels last year’s draw of 114 Bcf and the 5-year average of 155 Bcf. Working gas storage inventories dropped to 1.884 Tcf, which is 577 Bcf below last year and 433 Bcf below the 5-year average.
See the chart below for projections of the end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1, the end of the withdrawal season.
This Week in Fundamentals
The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending Feb. 15, 2018.
- Dry gas production is down 0.1 Bcf/d week-on-week, with Texas (−0.1 Bcf/d) and Gulf of Mexico (−0.1 Bcf/d) posting decreases while Southeast (+0.1 Bcf/d) production increased.
- Canadian imports are down 0.3 Bcf/d week-on-week.
- Demand: Demand saw a week-on-week decrease, reversing the previous week’s gains as temperatures moderated.
- Domestic natural gas demand is down 9.5 Bcf/d, with ResCom (−8.9 Bcf/d), and industrial (−0.9 Bcf/d) decreasing. Power demand increased 0.3 Bcf/d, likely because low gas prices allowed gas generation to take market share from coal.
- Mexico exports are down 0.1 Bcf/d, while LNG is flat week-on-week.
Total supply is down 0.5 Bcf/d, and total demand is down 10.4 Bcf/d. A lower withdrawal is expected next week, in the low-100s range. This draw compares with an 89 Bcf withdrawal reported last year and a 5-year average of 160 Bcf.