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First Withdrawal of the Season Moves Prices Up


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The EIA announced the first storage withdrawal of the season, which is about a week earlier than expected. A 2 Bcf withdrawal was reported for the week ending Nov. 18 compared to a range of forecasts between -1 to +15. The storage report is therefore bullish and the entire forward curve is up following the release. Prompt month (Dec16) is currently trading up 6 cents and back to the $3 level at $3.04/MMBtu, at time of writing.

U.S. storage inventories are relatively unchanged week-on-week at 4.045 Tcf, which is 39 Bcf higher than this time last year and 241 Bcf higher than the 5-year average.


Changes in weather patterns will continue to drive price volatility throughout the winter. Despite the current cold front we’re experiencing across most of the US, temperatures in the Midwest and Northeast are projected to go back to warmer-than-normal next week. This will cause next week’s storage withdrawal to be above last year, but fall short the week after. Price action next week will have the above information and is expected to leave prices relatively unchanged unless an updated forecast becomes available and reflects a significant change in weather temperatures for December and forward.

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