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First Take | Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Enverus Intelligence Research examines impacts Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on oil prices, the effectiveness of Western sanctions and potential political fallout

Media Contact: Jon Haubert | 303.396.5996

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Calgary, Alberta (February 24, 2022) — Enverus Intelligence Research, a part of Enverus, the leading global energy data analytics and SaaS technology company, has released a new report that examines the impacts Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have on oil prices, the effectiveness of Western sanctions and potential political fallout.

“While we see energy sanctions as a big leap for Russia-dependent euro economies, Brent prices exceeding $100/bbl imply the loss of ~1.5 MMbbl/d, which is tighter relative to our base model,” said Ian Nieboer, report author and managing director of Enverus’ Global (International) Energy Analytics business. “This amounts to about 20% of Russian crude and refined product exports. Whether that is accurate will depend upon the coordination of Western sanctions, battlefield developments and whether President Vladimir Putin decides to wield the energy weapon himself.”

“Benchmark oil prices have incorporated a meaningful geopolitical risk premium — perhaps $10-$15 — so far this year. The combination of slow-to-arrive, but still expected, U.S. supply growth, shrinking OPEC spare capacity, and strong demand amid increasing geopolitical tensions focused on — but not exclusive to — Russia and Ukraine have driven prompt Brent toward $100. The arrival of hot conflict last night is pushing crude prices past that mark,” Nieboer said.

Key takeaways from the report:

  • Brent prices exceeding $100/bbl imply the loss of ~1.5 MMbbl/d tighter relative to our base model. This amounts to ~20% of Russian crude and refined product exports.
  • The combination of slow-to-arrive (but still expected) U.S. supply growth, shrinking OPEC spare capacity and strong demand amid increasing geopolitical tensions focused on (but not exclusive to) Russia and Ukraine have driven prompt Brent toward $100/bbl.

Members of the media should contact Jon Haubert to schedule an interview with one of Enverus Intelligence Research’s expert analysts.

About Enverus
Enverus is the leading energy SaaS company delivering highly-technical insights and predictive/prescriptive analytics that empower customers to make decisions that increase profit. Enverus’ innovative technologies drive production and investment strategies, enable best practices for energy and commodity trading and risk management, and reduce costs through automated processes across critical business functions. Enverus is a strategic partner to more than 6,000 customers in 50 countries. Learn more at Enverus.com.

About Enverus Intelligence Research
Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is a subsidiary of Enverus and publishes energy-sector research that focuses on the oil and natural gas industries and broader energy topics including publicly traded and privately held oil, gas, midstream and other energy industry companies, basin studies (including characteristics, activity, infrastructure, etc.), commodity pricing forecasts, global macroeconomics and geopolitical matters.  Enverus Intelligence Research, Inc. is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser.

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