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Berman’s Latest Numbers Do Not Coincide With Actual Data


I understand many people agree with Arthur Berman’s stance on shale gas.  I do not, however, think that his new stance against shale liquids will catch on.  Here is his latest slide in his stance against the Eagle Ford shale play.  It should be noted that he left out his previous statement, ” less than 20% of wells will be commercial”.  That line was in the previous version of this slide.

BermanSlide-300x227Even though Berman’s group would disagree, I still think it is pretty early to forecast accurately many of the more oily Eagle Ford wells, especially if you are going against what people operating in the trend believe.  The cool thing is, I do not even have to project any EURs, I can just use the data out there to disprove some of the stances laid out in this slide.  The easiest point to disprove is that 20% will have EURs > 100,000 BOE and I will focus there.  I will only use the most liquids-rich wells in the trend, wells with a GOR < 20 Mcf/bbl.  This comes out to about 210 wells, a nice sample size.

Here are the wells in map form.  All of these are in the liquids rich portions of the play, I do not think this can be argued.

And here are these wells ranked in order of BOE produced.  No projections, just good ole’ fashioned raw data.

25% of these wells have already produced greater than 100,000 BOE.  How are the berman projections less than the actual data is one question.  Has new data come out in the 2 months since he gave his presentation? Sure.  If someone has some thoughts, leave a comment, or email me.

One more point to think about is that these wells represent the early wells in the operator’s programs.  They will only get better as time moves on.

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