2010 vs. 2009 – Max IPs and 3 Month Declines in LA Haynesville Wells

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2010 has brought with it a few distinct trends in the Haynesville Shale.  2009 was a year of massive IPs, in 2010 these IPs have been restricted.  2009 was a year of intense Haynesville drilling, in 2010 companies are drilling the bare minimum to hold acreage.  2009 saw the steepest declines of all unconventional  plays in the Haynesville, 1 year declines of about 80%.  In 2010 companies really begin to choke back wells to combat a few pressing issues.  I’ll use Drillinginfo to quantify some of these trends, easily and quickly.

Here are some maps, first 2009-2010 3-Month declines.  2009 3-Month declines were pushing 50%.  They dropped to under 40% in 2010. 2010 vs. 2009 – Max IPs and 3 Month Declines in LA Haynesville Wells

 2010 vs. 2009 – Max IPs and 3 Month Declines in LA Haynesville Wells

Now 2009-2010 Maximum Monthly Gas.  Restricted rates have brought the IPs down.

 2010 vs. 2009 – Max IPs and 3 Month Declines in LA Haynesville Wells

 2010 vs. 2009 – Max IPs and 3 Month Declines in LA Haynesville Wells

I believe the initial driving issue for the drop in IPs and drop in 3-Month declines was the idea of reservoir optimization.  The Haynesville rock is distinct from the Barnett and Eagle Ford and other unconventionals.  Companies one by one began to disclose test results indicating that pressure drawdown and fracture integrity and ultimately EURs are positively affected by restricting the rate at which wells are intially produced.   This trend started towards the end of 2009.

Fast forward to now, there is another more pressing issue.  Gas Prices.  Company reports indicate much of the play is uneconomical at current prices.  However, wells still have to be drilled to hold the acreage and meet certain contracts.  Restricting the rate now can make even more sense on an NPV basis, assuming you think prices can recover, at least some, going forward.  In essence, save the production for a slightly better pricing environment.

LA gas data is reported at the lease level, therefore I filtered out some of the leases that showed large gas production from multiple wells on the same lease.  A more detailed review of these issues, using HPDI allocated data to include all wells, is available to subscribers of the Unconventional Research Platform.

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